Coronavirus strategy --
When the US find itself in times of pandemic
President Donnie comes to me
Speaking words of madness, let it spread.
And in my hour of darkness
My governor is standing right in front of TV
Speaking words of insanity, let it spread,
let it spread..
When the US find itself in times of pandemic
President Donnie comes to me
Speaking words of madness, let it spread.
And in my hour of darkness
My governor is standing right in front of TV
Speaking words of insanity, let it spread,
let it spread..
Let it spread - Exhibit A
reopening while your new case count and death count
is close to ATH.
data from worldometers.info/coronavirus/
reopening while your new case count and death count
is close to ATH.
data from worldometers.info/coronavirus/
The reason why?
Hospital beds seemingly under-utilized. as in hospitals can take more patients, so it is okay to have more infection and death?!
see the numbers highlighted by arrows
data from txdshs.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashbo…
Hospital beds seemingly under-utilized. as in hospitals can take more patients, so it is okay to have more infection and death?!
see the numbers highlighted by arrows
data from txdshs.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashbo…
Why is persistent high death count okay?
because it has been mostly grandpas and grandmas?
data from Texas DSHS
because it has been mostly grandpas and grandmas?
data from Texas DSHS
Of course, lockdown is not a long-term solution.
Lockdown is a short-term emergency act to buy us time to figure out a long-term solution.
We need to re-organzine/mobilize the unemployed, more delivery services. more PPE manufacturing, more cleaning staff etc etc.
Lockdown is a short-term emergency act to buy us time to figure out a long-term solution.
We need to re-organzine/mobilize the unemployed, more delivery services. more PPE manufacturing, more cleaning staff etc etc.
Going forward, I think the main factor that drives the decision on lockdown/reopening is the risk of hospital overrun.
consequently, I expect Donnie and many governors will continue to push for reopening, no matter whether I like/dislike it.
consequently, I expect Donnie and many governors will continue to push for reopening, no matter whether I like/dislike it.
Two reasons to explain why US can have such high case count without hospital overruns.
1. discharge criteria very loose (not requiring PCR negative)
2. healthcare workers now adequately protected with PPE + access to remdesivir
1. discharge criteria very loose (not requiring PCR negative)
2. healthcare workers now adequately protected with PPE + access to remdesivir
The main consequence for us is
Infectious patients continue to be released early or not being admitted, so that family clusters/workplace clusters continue to occur.
The hotel isolation implemented in NYC is a great step to prevent this. Taiwan, South Korea, China all did it.
Infectious patients continue to be released early or not being admitted, so that family clusters/workplace clusters continue to occur.
The hotel isolation implemented in NYC is a great step to prevent this. Taiwan, South Korea, China all did it.
Overall, it is reasonable to expect 3-7% people around you are active COVID19 carriers, if you live in the US for the next 8 months.
I will write a long thread tomorrow on some coping strategies. It should be relevant even for those who have recovered from COVID19.
I will write a long thread tomorrow on some coping strategies. It should be relevant even for those who have recovered from COVID19.
