Thread by @FLAHAULT

1/16. May 12 to May 19 - #COVID19 Epidemic Forecasting for cases/deaths/reproductive rates/tests in 208 countries.
This thread for 15 countries.
(Credits: @cchoirat @gavin_k_lee @elisa_manetti @FLAHAULT)
Powered by @ISG_UNIGE and @SDSCdatascience

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2/16. Switzerland reported 54 new #COVID19 cases on May 11 with a growth rate 0.2%.
With 49 new cases/day forecast in the next days, the country has started to lift some of its social distancing measures
Reproductive Rate (R-effective) 0.73
36,144 tests/1M pop

3/16. Italy reported 802 new #COVID19 cases on May 11 with a daily growth rate of 0.4%. With 940 new cases each day forecast in the next days, the country starts to lift its lockdown.
Reproductive Rate (R-effective) 0.78
43,112 tests/1M pop

4/16. (data reported too late for May 11) Spain reported 812 new #COVID19 cases on May 10 with a daily growth rate of 0.3%. With 767 new cases each day forecast in the next days, the country starts to lift its lockdown.
Reproductive Rate (R-effective) 0.88
52,781 tests/1M pop

5/16. France reported 209 new #COVID19 cases on May 11 with a daily growth rate of 0.2%. With 321 new cases each day forecast in the next days, the country starts to lift its lockdown.
Reproductive Rate (R-eff) 0.38
21,213 tests/1M pop (not frequently updated)

6/16. The UK reported 3,923 new #COVID19 cases on May 11 with daily growth rate of 1.8%. Plateauing at 3,910 new cases/day forecast in the next days, the country cannot easily lift any of its social distancing measures.
Reproductive Rate (R-effective) 0.91
28,309 tests/1M pop

7/16. Sweden reported 401 new #COVID19 cases on May 11 with a growth rate of 2.1%. With 528 new cases each day forecast in the next days, the country is plateauing at a medium level.
Reproductive Rate (R-effective) 1.63
14,704 tests/1M pop (not frequently updated)

8/16. Germany reported 357 new #COVID19 cases on May 11 with a growth rate of 0.3%. With 512 new cases each day forecast in the next days, the country is lifting some of its social distancing measures.
Reproductive Rate (R-effective) 0.85
32,891 tests/1M pop

9/16. Russia reported 11,012 new #COVID19 cases on May 11 with a growth rate of 5.7%. With 12-17,000 new cases each day forecast in the next days, the country seems experiencing the end of its exponential phase of its epidemic wave.
Reprod. Rate (R-eff) 1.12
38,625 tests/1M pop

10/16. South Korea reported 35 new #COVID19 cases on May 11 with a daily growth rate of 0.3%. With 35 new cases each day forecast in the next days, the country is currently controlling the pandemic.
Reproduct. Rate (R-eff): 3.6 (from 18 to 35 cases in 3 days)
13,039 tests/1M pop

12/16. India reported 4,213 new #COVID19 cases on May 11 with a daily growth rate of 6.1%. With 4-6,000 new cases/day forecast in the next days, the country seems experiencing the end of the exponential phase of its epidemic wave.
Reprod Rate (R-eff.) 1.19
1,213 tests/1M pop

13/16. The USA reported 20,258 new #COVID19 cases on May 11 with a daily growth rate of 1.8%. Plateauing around 23,000 new cases/day forecast in the next days, the country cannot yet lift any of its social distancing meas.
Reproductive Rate (R-effective) 0.97
28,896 tests/1M pop

14/16. Canada reported 1,146 new #COVID19 cases on May 11 with a growth rate of 1.8%. With 1,207 new cases/day in the next days, the country is plateauing at medium level.
Reproductive Rate (R-effective) 0.84
30,099 tests/1M pop

15/16. Mexico reported 1,562 new #COVID19 cases on May 11 with a growth rate of 5.4%. With 2-3,000 new cases/day in the next days, the country seems experiencing the end of the exponential phase of its epidemic wave.
Reproductive Rate (R-effective) 1.29
1,016 tests/1M pop

16/16. Australia reported 12 new #COVID19 cases on May 11 with a growth rate of 0.2%. With 14 new cases/day forecast in the next days, the country is quietly entering into the cold season.
Reproductive Rate (R-effective) 0.85
33,534 tests/1M pop