@PLMattis & @shifrinson had a vigorous debate over the extent that foreign policy statements/documents are "cheap talk"
Foreign policy pronouncements can be informative, to a degree. To see why, consider an exercise from "Intro to IR": @BarackObama NSS v @realDonaldTrump NSS
Foreign policy pronouncements can be informative, to a degree. To see why, consider an exercise from "Intro to IR": @BarackObama NSS v @realDonaldTrump NSS
The NSS was singled out by @PLMattis, and rightfully so: these documents are written every few years and they don't contain a lot of "meat" (though But they are probably more substantial than SOU addresses)
What can we really glean from them?
It can be informative to engage in a "compare and contrast" exercise (something I ask of my students).
It can be informative to engage in a "compare and contrast" exercise (something I ask of my students).
There are lot's of things one could compare. For instance, which of the following statements is from the 2017 NSS? 
If you guessed the one of the right, you are correct!
But both highlight how the world is "insecure" and "dangerous". A difference of word choice, but not of substance.
But both highlight how the world is "insecure" and "dangerous". A difference of word choice, but not of substance.
Go down a little further and things become more interesting (and informative). Which of the following statements is from the 2017 NSS?
If you guessed the one of the left, you are correct!
I mean, there's simply no way the Trump administration is going to use the phrase "rules-based liberal order", right?
I mean, there's simply no way the Trump administration is going to use the phrase "rules-based liberal order", right?
Speaking of phrases, which NSS do you think uses the phrase "sovereign(ty)" more?
It's not even close:
- 2015 = 4 times (all reference to 🇺🇦🇮🇶🇦🇫)
- 2017 = 27 times!
- 2015 = 4 times (all reference to 🇺🇦🇮🇶🇦🇫)
- 2017 = 27 times!
Also, notable in a time of #COVID19 is to compare mentions of disease as a security threat.
- 2015 = 20 mentions of disease/pandemic/ebola
- 2017 = 6 mentions of disease/pandemic/ebola
- 2015 = 20 mentions of disease/pandemic/ebola
- 2017 = 6 mentions of disease/pandemic/ebola
Since the @shifrinson-@PLMattis debate began over 🇨🇳, how do you think the two documents describe 🇨🇳?
Well, which of the following comes from the 2017 NSS?
Well, which of the following comes from the 2017 NSS?
Once again, it's the one on the left: no mention of "unprecedented cooperation" in 2017 (though it should be noted that both give 🇨🇳 a little "diplomatic side-eye")
Now don't get me wrong: these statements need to be followed up with actions!
Indeed, that's probably why you (or my students) were able to correctly identify the statements: familiarity with @BarackObama's & @realDonaldTrump 's actions.
Indeed, that's probably why you (or my students) were able to correctly identify the statements: familiarity with @BarackObama's & @realDonaldTrump 's actions.
Overall, this exercise demonstrates how SOME insights into the likely path of US foreign policy can be gleaned from a public facing policy documents.
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