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Interesting new paper uses our hurricane data to estimate that @NOAA @NHC_Atlantic hurricane forecasts reduce hurricane damage by ~$1.8B/yr 1970-2018
Net benefit: $30-71B
Martinez 2020. Forecast Accuracy Matters for Hurricane Damage. Econometrics mdpi.com/2225-1146/8/2/…
Martinez 2020 has this excellent viz clearly showing the improvement of hurricane track forecast errors since 1950s
Appears improvements really started ~1985
The 12-hr ahead hurricane landfall forecast errors clearly shows a steady improvement but also the elimination of the biggest errors
Bravo @NOAA @NHC_Atlantic
Finally, Martinez 2020 indicates that damage reduction due to improved forecasts does not introduce a bias into our normalization methods (while significant in cost-benefit analysis, it is in the noise of total hurricane damage)
nature.com/articles/s4189…
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Roger Pielke Jr.
@RogerPielkeJr
Trends 1972-2017 in N Indian Ocean cyclonic storms (CSs) & Intense Severe Cyclones (ISCs)
link.springer.com/article/10.100…
Fig10. Annual distribution of a CSs & ISCs, b & c shows the ACE & PDI values of CSs & ICSs, respectively, d shows the MSW speed in the BoB during the period 1972–2017
1972-2017 trends in tropical cyclones in the Bay of Bengal
More weak storms
No significant trend in strong storms (or intensity)
link.springer.com/article/10.100…
But be careful
Climate is highly variable
When you start & stop a trend analysis makes a big difference
The mid-60s-mid-70s were super active in the BOB
So start there, and you get down trends to 2017
Here is BoB TC landfall data 1877-1977 from Mooley 1980
journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.117…
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Roger Pielke Jr.
@RogerPielkeJr
I have always disliked - in any discipline - studies that focus on unitless or derived metrics as proxies for what they really want to measure

In this case they are examining hurricanes not via observations of hurricanes, but analysis of metrics of observations of hurricanes
I don't think anyone is surprised that there is a greater proportion of major hurricanes since 1980 (even 1970). Here is our global landfall data showing a similar trend
That is not news (IBrTRACs has a similar trend)
But our knowledge of tropical cyclones does not begin in 1980 (or 1970). Here is a look at landfalls from 1950, based on the basins for which we have good data.
1980 is clearly at a low point of activity in past 70 years, so will lead to trends starting there, again, not news
Read 5 tweets
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Roger Pielke Jr.
@RogerPielkeJr
It is always uncomfortable when you read a climate paper hyped in the press release-media spin cycle only to find that the paper doesn't support what it claims ... short thread ...
New PNAS paper out today on hurricanes claims "Increases and trends are found in the exceedance probability and proportion of major (Saffir−Simpson categories 3 to 5) TC intensities ..."
The paper actually shows this claim is not true "the absence of a probability shift at the most intense part of the intensity spectrum, as seen in Fig. 1"

According to the paper, the probability of a major hurricane has not increased at the greatest intensity levels (>~110 kts)
Read 8 tweets

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