As part of the launch of “Becoming Kim Jong Un” (penguinrandomhouse.com/books/604727/b…) I’ve written a short piece for @ambassadorbrief, highlighting some key points about Kim’s personality, motivations, & the drivers for his actions 1/
ambassadorsbrief.com/posts/mgRHNSK6…
ambassadorsbrief.com/posts/mgRHNSK6…
Kim Jong Un is bigger, badder, and bolder than his father or grandfather—with a higher risk appetite and potentially more ambitious goals. One manifestation of this is his acceleration of nuclear weapons development, despite the costs. 2/
Kim wants to go beyond just ensuring regime survival (through its nuclear program), and reposition North Korea as a modern and prosperous nation. 3/
The summits of 2018 & 2019 are likely to have further emboldened Kim to get what he wants through nuclear diplomacy—as they validated several of his key strategic assumptions—inc. that the US has no appetite for war & that China will not abandon North Korea. 4/
Yet Kim is not invulnerable: economic issues, and his own health, pose significant challenges for him at home. His recent absence from public view underscores how his health—his weight, smoking, and family history of heart disease—will remain a wildcard in regime stability. 5/
Kim is highly unlikely to give up his nuclear weapons. He’s likely to conduct strategic provocations or mil actions that fall just under the threshold for a military response. He has a bias for action, relies on violence to get what he wants, and his confidence is growing. 6/6
