Thread by @NickKristof

So what's the undercount on #covid19 in the US? I worked with @Harvard statistician @rafalab to calculate the excess deaths, and it seems that in the US more than 100,000 Americans have ALREADY died from the coronavirus. Here's our count: nyti.ms/3bBfvra

@Harvard @rafalab To put it another way, using these new estimates, in about two months, we lost more Americans to #covid19 as died in seven decades of armed conflict: Korean, Vietnam, Gulf, Afghan and Iraq wars.

The best estimate for total coronavirus-related deaths in the US, we find, is between 100k and 110k. But 70 percent of the excess deaths are in just five states: NY, NJ, MA, MI and IL. Some states are losing fewer lives than normal, apparently because of fewer road accidents.

Excess death calculations are fraught and uncertain, but they're a reminder that when Trump allies say the Covid numbers are off, they have a point. It's just that deaths are much HIGHER than reported, not lower. And many more coming. Column here: nyti.ms/3bBfvra