Thread by @ProfPaulPoast

Is World Peace a bright side to #COVID19?

That's the argument Barry Posen makes in @ForeignAffairs.

I'm not so sure 🤔

[THREAD]

foreignaffairs.com/articles/china…

Posen's piece is worth reading. The core of his argument is that the pandemic weakens everyone and creates pessimism about national ability (at the moment). Both of those reduce willingness to take the gamble of war, both now and possibly for years afterwards.

Given Posen's claims, it's useful to consider how #COVID19 will impact global conflict over three time horizons:

- the short term

- the medium term

- the long term

Short term (i.e. immediately): there was hope that the pandemic would bring to the end (or at least encourage a ceasefire) some of the conflicts presently raging around the globe.

https://mobile.twitter.com/CrisisGroup/status/1248265142149709826

We did see some evidence for this in Yemen

cnn.com/2020/04/09/mid…

But not in other conflicts, like Libya

https://mobile.twitter.com/Hugh_Pope/status/1249649574433652737

And this says nothing about the other side of the conflict-pandemic relationship: that the war will make the pandemic worse, as @Elizrael & @Qussai_jukhadar discuss regarding Syria

mei.edu/publications/r…

As @JarrettBlanc & @franceszbrown write for @CarnegieEndow, "a closer look at a range of significant conflicts across the world indicates, at least in the near term, a high risk of escalating violence"

carnegieendowment.org/2020/04/14/cor…

Side note: worth checking out the entire @CarnegieEndow report, as it has focused contributions on each of the world's ongoing conflict zones (including @pstanpolitics on Kashmir)

carnegieendowment.org/2020/04/14/kas…

And don't forget that the UN Security Council can't agree on a global cease fire resolution (though it's unclear what effect such a resolution would have)

https://twitter.com/ProfPaulPoast/status/1251481461766619142

In short, the prospects of #COVID19 causing peace in these zones is not encouraging.

Medium term (i.e. this year): seems that militarily aggressive actions have INCREASED (or are impervious to #COVID19).

For example, Turkey is becoming more involved in Libya

duvarenglish.com/diplomacy/2020…

Or consider how Russia (who else?) is engaged in military posturing in the arctic region...

cbc.ca/amp/1.5563691?…

...which has drawn in the US

rferl.org/a/arctic-russi…

There is also China's recent actions towards islands in the South China Sea

focustaiwan.tw/politics/20200…

And consider how countries have adjusted so that their strategic military plans are unimpacted by #COVID19.

See "Case of USS Roosevelt"

navytimes.com/news/coronavir…

To stay on the Roosevelt for a moment, it did create a big civ-mil mess for the US, as @lindsaypcohn, @ahfdc, & @jimgolby explain in @monkeycageblog

washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/…

And it created larger logistical issues for the Navy: how do you maintain a global naval presence if crews keep subcumbing to #COVID19?

businessinsider.com/us-navy-flaunt…

But the US responded and adjusted. Similarly, as @MatBoulegue of @ChathamHouse in @WarOnTheRocks points out, we're seeing adjustments by Russia

warontherocks.com/2020/05/how-is…

In short, it seems the military plans of many countries are proceeding as normal.

Now for the Long term (i.e. years to come): #COVID19 could alter defense spending priorities.

@oonahathaway made this point forcefully for @just_security regarding the US

justsecurity.org/69563/covid-19…

@norabensahel & @DWBarno76 at @WarOnTheRocks have published a series of articles on the possible impact on US defense spending, including here ...

warontherocks.com/2020/04/five-w…

...and here

warontherocks.com/2020/03/after-…

Mandy Smithberger raises a more profound question in @thenation: why is defense spending even a priority?

thenation.com/article/politi…

In short, there *could* be a longer term impact...though (obviously), that remains to be seen.

And it's also not clear that the longer term impact will actually bring about more peace.

To sum up, looking at the short term, medium term, and long term impact of #COVID19 on security and conflict largely underscores the point @tanishafazal & I recently made in @ForeignAffairs: war is not over

foreignaffairs.com/articles/2019-…

So unlike Posen, I don't think #COVID19 will bring about a "Pax epidemia"

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