#Covid19India: Checking in on some of the states whose testing rates had not been good enough or had been facing a strong surge of new cases lately - which may have stressed their testing capacity.
A heuristic to assess if their testing levels are appropriate is the proxy CFR
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A heuristic to assess if their testing levels are appropriate is the proxy CFR
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#Covid19India
Bihar (1/2): Testing has failed to rise as needed. Positivity is tending upwards to 5%. In the growth rate chart, testing rate is on the decline while the positives rate is diverging and rising.
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Bihar (1/2): Testing has failed to rise as needed. Positivity is tending upwards to 5%. In the growth rate chart, testing rate is on the decline while the positives rate is diverging and rising.
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#Covid19India
Bihar (2/2): Actives are rising and the levels are much higher than earlier in the series. Recoveries rate and CFR both look good.
Anomalous case because the growth of tests is NOT in accord with the CFR. Something's off here.
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Bihar (2/2): Actives are rising and the levels are much higher than earlier in the series. Recoveries rate and CFR both look good.
Anomalous case because the growth of tests is NOT in accord with the CFR. Something's off here.
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#Covid19India
Delhi (1/2): Testing rate is marginally ahead of the growth of positives. Positivity is declining towards 4%. N-Fold growth of tests remains distinctly higher over that of positives.
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Delhi (1/2): Testing rate is marginally ahead of the growth of positives. Positivity is declining towards 4%. N-Fold growth of tests remains distinctly higher over that of positives.
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#Covid19India
Delhi (2/2): Active case levels have dropped substantially in the last two updates. Recovery rate is indicating a rise above 50% level soon. CFR remains under 2% (while there ARE reports of hospitals not reporting deaths).
All indicators are largely consistent.
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Delhi (2/2): Active case levels have dropped substantially in the last two updates. Recovery rate is indicating a rise above 50% level soon. CFR remains under 2% (while there ARE reports of hospitals not reporting deaths).
All indicators are largely consistent.
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#Covid19India
Gujarat (1/2): Growth rates of both - tests and positives on a consistent decline, while daily new case levels continue to rise. Positivity is strongly above 6%. N-Fold growth between positives and tests continue to diverge with daily tests dropping below 2x.
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Gujarat (1/2): Growth rates of both - tests and positives on a consistent decline, while daily new case levels continue to rise. Positivity is strongly above 6%. N-Fold growth between positives and tests continue to diverge with daily tests dropping below 2x.
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#Covid19India
Gujarat (2/2): Actives show a decline. Recoveries breach past 50%. However, CFR is strongly high above 8% - which is to be inferred as the direct consequence of decline in testing and/or passive/indifferent approach to testing.
Likely being mishandled.
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Gujarat (2/2): Actives show a decline. Recoveries breach past 50%. However, CFR is strongly high above 8% - which is to be inferred as the direct consequence of decline in testing and/or passive/indifferent approach to testing.
Likely being mishandled.
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#Covid19India
MP (1/2): Mild rise in testing growth matching that of positives. However, N-fold growth chart suggests substantial improvement with time. Positivity tending towards a healthy 1%
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MP (1/2): Mild rise in testing growth matching that of positives. However, N-fold growth chart suggests substantial improvement with time. Positivity tending towards a healthy 1%
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#Covid19India
MP (2/2): Actives growth appears well managed. Recovery rate has climbed well above 50%. CFR is not good at all - staying a shade above 7%.
Indicative of delayed response to testing needs and/or unfocussed/passive approach. Reactive than proactive.
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MP (2/2): Actives growth appears well managed. Recovery rate has climbed well above 50%. CFR is not good at all - staying a shade above 7%.
Indicative of delayed response to testing needs and/or unfocussed/passive approach. Reactive than proactive.
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#Covid19India
Maharashtra (1/2): Testing growth has been struggling to rise above that of positives. Daily new cases levels well above 1K. Positivity strongly high above 10%. N-Fold growth shows that positives have accelerated past growth in testing capacity.
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Maharashtra (1/2): Testing growth has been struggling to rise above that of positives. Daily new cases levels well above 1K. Positivity strongly high above 10%. N-Fold growth shows that positives have accelerated past growth in testing capacity.
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#Covid19India
Maharashtra (2/2): While Actives continue to spike, there's a slight decline in the level over the past week of updates. Recoveries slowly rising past 25%. CFR declining below 6% on steady trend.
All indications are consistent.
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Maharashtra (2/2): While Actives continue to spike, there's a slight decline in the level over the past week of updates. Recoveries slowly rising past 25%. CFR declining below 6% on steady trend.
All indications are consistent.
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#Covid19India
Punjab (1/2): Surge of new cases is suppressed. Growth rate of tests risen above that of positives. Positivity declining from 5%.
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Punjab (1/2): Surge of new cases is suppressed. Growth rate of tests risen above that of positives. Positivity declining from 5%.
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#Covid19India
Punjab (2/2): Actives levels appear to be well managed. Declined recovery rate signalling an upturn. CFR well-contained below 2%
Challenged but well-managed, from all indicators.
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Punjab (2/2): Actives levels appear to be well managed. Declined recovery rate signalling an upturn. CFR well-contained below 2%
Challenged but well-managed, from all indicators.
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#Covid19India
Tamil Nadu (1/2): Testing is likely at capacity so unable to rise much. New case levels on the decline though. Positivity on the higher side between 4-6% indicating there's more work to be done to deal with current surge.
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Tamil Nadu (1/2): Testing is likely at capacity so unable to rise much. New case levels on the decline though. Positivity on the higher side between 4-6% indicating there's more work to be done to deal with current surge.
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#Covid9India
Tamil Nadu (2/2): Actives levels suggesting a decline. But currently much higher than in the past. Recoveries declined below 50% (denominator has the spike of new cases from a week earlier). CFR well maintained below 2%
Challenged but indicators consistent.
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Tamil Nadu (2/2): Actives levels suggesting a decline. But currently much higher than in the past. Recoveries declined below 50% (denominator has the spike of new cases from a week earlier). CFR well maintained below 2%
Challenged but indicators consistent.
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#Covid19India
West Bengal (1/2): Testing growth rate remains flat. Positivity declining towards 2%. N-Fold growth of tests shows substantial rise over that of positives.
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West Bengal (1/2): Testing growth rate remains flat. Positivity declining towards 2%. N-Fold growth of tests shows substantial rise over that of positives.
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#Covid19India
West Bengal (2/2): Actives level declining. Recoveries rate rising well above 50%. HOWEVER, CFR is the HIGHEST amongst all Indian States ~ 12%.
That's a major red flag against testing quality, approach thereto AND management of confirmed cases.
West Bengal (2/2): Actives level declining. Recoveries rate rising well above 50%. HOWEVER, CFR is the HIGHEST amongst all Indian States ~ 12%.
That's a major red flag against testing quality, approach thereto AND management of confirmed cases.
