No, this is someone that doesn't use counting stats or yards per carry for the basis of their RB evaluations....
I use things that ACTUALLY correlate like draft capital and yards created.
Lets try some quality analysis.
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I use things that ACTUALLY correlate like draft capital and yards created.
Lets try some quality analysis.
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This is what a generational RB prospect looks like:
Jonthan Taylor is a fantastic RB prospect. But he sure as hell isnt generational.
Elite size speed combo. Absolutely.
Elite size speed combo. Absolutely.
This is probably the most useless metric I look at but it shows if they have been able to handle a large workload in the past. It is market share of rush yards.
I used the same regression line for JT that I had used for Saquon. Average of RB's that have had a top 5 season.
I used the same regression line for JT that I had used for Saquon. Average of RB's that have had a top 5 season.
This one is for market share of receiving yards. IMO a generational RB should be a focal point of his teams passing game.
The coaching staff should be trying to get the ball in this guys hands as much as possible.
Saquon was used substantially more as a generational RB should
The coaching staff should be trying to get the ball in this guys hands as much as possible.
Saquon was used substantially more as a generational RB should
Just for fun lets throw the other RB's that have been selected in the top 5 of the NFL draft on the chart to see how they showed up.
Bizarre that Fournette and Zeke both outpaced "generational" (sarcasm) Jonathan Taylor.
Bizarre that Fournette and Zeke both outpaced "generational" (sarcasm) Jonathan Taylor.
I made a comment about JT's terrific offensive line at Wisconsin.... It doesnt make him a bad player it makes his yards per carry misleading.
Taylor - 6.3 ypc.
Saquon - 5.7
Taylor - 6.3 ypc.
Saquon - 5.7
On Football outsiders 2019 college football offensive line rankings Wisconsin came in at 15 out of 130!
Most would consider that to be pretty good.
Most would consider that to be pretty good.
That in of itself is not a bad thing.
Saquon's final year at Penn State they ranked 63rd by contrast.
We know that offensive line, situational play calling, defenders in the box etc. effect raw yards per carry
WHICH IS WHY YARDS PER CARRY IS NOT AN RB EFFICIENCY METRIC 📢
Saquon's final year at Penn State they ranked 63rd by contrast.
We know that offensive line, situational play calling, defenders in the box etc. effect raw yards per carry
WHICH IS WHY YARDS PER CARRY IS NOT AN RB EFFICIENCY METRIC 📢
Here is a really unsophistacted example of how yards per carry is manipulated by run blocking.
So if we cant use yards per carry, lets try a metric that is designed to remove the offensive line from the equation.
@GrahamBarfield 's Yards Created Metric is that which you seek.
This is the new home for yards created and its glorious.
fantasypoints.com/nfl/articles/s…
@GrahamBarfield 's Yards Created Metric is that which you seek.
This is the new home for yards created and its glorious.
fantasypoints.com/nfl/articles/s…
Jonathan Taylor had 4.82 yards created per attempt. That is really really good, But it isn't generational.
In fact, it isnt even close.
Saquon had 6.04 for instance.
Zeke had 5.98
Fournette had 5.85
In fact, it isnt even close.
Saquon had 6.04 for instance.
Zeke had 5.98
Fournette had 5.85
JT simply does not belong in the same conversation as the RB's drafted in the top 5 in recent memory.
He created more than a full yard less per carry than Fournette did and Fournette was the worst of the three.
That is a sizeable gap.
He created more than a full yard less per carry than Fournette did and Fournette was the worst of the three.
That is a sizeable gap.
That being said, JT's mark of 4.82 is still really good. Its just not generational.
Then we get to draft capital.
JT was famously selected in the 2nd round of the 2020 draft as the third RB off the board.
Saquon was the 2nd OVERALL pick.
JT was famously selected in the 2nd round of the 2020 draft as the third RB off the board.
Saquon was the 2nd OVERALL pick.
If your argument is that RB's dont matter and thats why JT wasnt a top 10 pick then lets look into that.
NFL.com puts out prospect grades each year after the NFL combine.
NFL.com puts out prospect grades each year after the NFL combine.
RB's taken in the top 5 picks score exceptionally well on this.
Saquon - 7.45 - perennial all-pro
Zeke - 7.09 - all pro
Fournette - 6.8 - Year 1 quality starter
JT - 6.41 - will be starter within a year or two
See the difference there?
Saquon - 7.45 - perennial all-pro
Zeke - 7.09 - all pro
Fournette - 6.8 - Year 1 quality starter
JT - 6.41 - will be starter within a year or two
See the difference there?
I am not saying that NFL draft scores are the be all end all either. But JT certainly didnt grade out like a top 5 pick.
Maybe he just isn't generational?
Maybe he just isn't generational?
At the end of the day, I really like JT, in fact I thought I was higher than consensus on him right up until I started seeing JT is generational splashed across my timeline.
I define generational prospect as sure-fire hall of famer.
I define generational prospect as sure-fire hall of famer.
If you dig in a little deeper than rush attempts behind a quality offensive line you find a terrific prospect, but not a generational one
And you can keep your clout @FantasyFBStoner
And you can keep your clout @FantasyFBStoner
