Thread by @DFBeanCounter

It feels like every year we are inundated with "once a player plays in the NFL his college profile no longer matters"

Lets take a quick look at rookie year efficiency over the past couple years and see if the prospect profile mattered

We will use Yards per pass route

(thread)

First up is 2017 because that is when Playerprofiler started tracking it. (if you know if a site that goes further back I'd love to dig into it so let me know!)

Lets start with the big dogs. All of Godwin, Juju, and Kupp displayed terrific rookie efficiency by exceeding 2.00

All 3 guys were drafted on day 2.

All 3 guys were productive in college.

All 3 guys have gone on to be productive fantasy players.

Good players that succeed early are the players you should be chasing.

Then we have:

Mack Hollins - day 3. Avoid
Kenny Golladay - productive day 2 pick. buy
Keelan Cole - undrafted. Avoid.
Kendrick Bourne - Undrafted. Avoid.

So Golladay was the only one worth chasing... and yup he produced from day 1 in college. Probably should have been buying

Then we have:

Corey Davis with a putrid 1.24 yards per pass route. This should have set off all kinds of warning signals... but I was mesmerized by that playoff game against NE in his rookie season and his absolutely sterling prospect profile. Shame on me

We should always sell uncertainty.

CD came into the league with elite draft capital, an elite analytical profile, and elite film grades from most of the film folk I follow

But when he flopped as a rookie from an efficiency stand point we should have pivoted.... #lessonlearned

And then we have Zay Jones with a laughable 0.78 yards per pass route. #alloftheoofs

He had an ok production profile coming out of college but at a small school with his athleticism we expected more in his early years.

But his athleticism..... wowow. Anyway, major face plant.

Let's look at 2018's class

Robert Foster actually led the class and had a solid rookie year of 541 yards. But should we have been buying?!

Nope!

That flies directly in contrast with him going undrafted and then also being an absolute dud in the Alabama passing game...

This is not the profile of a successful NFL wr.

At least you probably got him on waivers and if you were smart you cashed out hard...

Next on the list is everybody's favorite Dante Pettis...

Yup, dude was a stud as a rookie... If only there was some hint that it may have been a mirage.... Literally just anyone out on the Twitter telling you its not real...

Oh weird. He flamed out in spectacular fashion...

And then we have Keke...

What a surprise this undersized day 3 pick with one year of college production under his belt flamed out so magnificently after being SO mesmerizing as a rookie...

Then we get to DJM

Wait a tick.. you mean to tell me that when a quality prospect performs well in their rookie year that they go on to do incredible things?! Almost like their prospect profile mattered!?

Utterly dominant 1st round pick with off the charts athleticism

And then we have a couple undrafted guys that dont really matter... Burnett and Powell...

And then we get to Christian Kirk...

ummm... Dominant from day 1 in college. great rookie year efficiency with Josh "mf'ing" Rosen as his qb...

Expect good things...

Then we have Calvin Ridley.

Another great prospect that was terrific as a rookie... then went out and performed in his 2nd year...

Ok, so just to be clear... the players that flamed out after posting a 2.0+ yards per pass route from the 2018 class were:

Robert Foster
Dante Pettis
Keke Coutee

The guys that had fantasy starter seasons in their 2nd year after performing with 2.0+ yards per route run in their rookie season were:

Juju
Godwin
Kupp
Kirk
DJM
Ridley

Tell me again that prospect profiles dont matter after a player "does it" in the NFL...

So, what about 2019?!

We have tons of players that exceeded 2.0 yards per pass route in 2019...

Personally I had AJB and Andy Isabella marked as #bulletproofprospect's coming into the 2019 NFL draft.

So I think they were pretty terrific....

Isabella barely got on the field though and he took a major ADP hit which doesnt bode well for his future.

AJB though... 😍

But its the other guys that are more interesting...

Renfrow
McLaurin
Deebo
Hollywood
Mecole
Metcalf

These guys produced in college like the one-hit wonders from earlier that also flamed out in their sophomore seasons

Forgive me if I want to see more before I am a believer

I always sell uncertainty....

If a player comes into the league with a low probability of success and then surprises I sell because it's probably fraudulent

If a great prospect comes in and completely falls on his face ala Corey Davis, Its probably time to move on

PS. this is an N'Keal Harry tweet

You probably noticed that he put up an atrocious 0.90 yards per pass route after having an impeccable prospect profile.

CD had 1.24

This is the type of thing that very much powers my dynasty rankings on patreon.

Dont be tricked by flash in the pan types.