I'm doing a thread on the Danish Ship Finance report @Splash_247 highlighted here: splash247.com/danish-ship-fi…
The full report will be probably available sometime in the future here: shipfinance.dk/shipping-resea…
$STNG $ASC $DSSI $HAFNIA $INSW $EURN $TNK $FRO $DHT #tankers #oott #oil
The full report will be probably available sometime in the future here: shipfinance.dk/shipping-resea…
$STNG $ASC $DSSI $HAFNIA $INSW $EURN $TNK $FRO $DHT #tankers #oott #oil
This is their overview of where we are: 
They see a challenging future ahead for shipbuilding and at face value, this sounds bullish for rates (ship supply is coming down right?) but it is not always so.
Desperate shipbuilders offer silly cheap prices to entice orders. Also, governments may decide to finance
Desperate shipbuilders offer silly cheap prices to entice orders. Also, governments may decide to finance
new ships with very attractive rates to boost their shipbuilding industry. After a yard closes it doesn't come back easily.
As long as finance is tight & regulatory uncertainty about the new types of ships persist, I think that we won't have rampant shipbuilding any time soon.
As long as finance is tight & regulatory uncertainty about the new types of ships persist, I think that we won't have rampant shipbuilding any time soon.
For container ships, the market will obviously be bad but they see increased scrapping activity that will help in restoring balance to the market.
The dry bulk segment is hit by both sides (supply and demand) but there is a little nuance. The smaller ships are projected to hold better than Capesizes.
On the crude tanker side, uncertainty reigns supreme. Yes demand has fallen, yes supply has followed through, but a lot depends on how oil inventories are going to unwind and how the various oil blends are dispersed around the world.
Product tankers are in better shape as demand is estimated to fall less than crude demand but still, they expect supply (even meager as it is) to burden the market. MRs have a lot of scrapping candidates but the LR fleet is young.
LPG is projected to face declining rates as they expect supply to outpace demand.
The presence of the LNG market is good but the future is gloom as they see the fleet increasing 25% over the next 3 years.
They don't cover the offshore market in this report beyond the few paragraphs below and that shows how written-off this segment is by the market in general.
Personally, I think that in a few years this will be a source of major opportunity on par or better with tankers now 😉
Personally, I think that in a few years this will be a source of major opportunity on par or better with tankers now 😉
This is the good news for ship owners & the bad news for shipbuilders & their dependents. Keep in mind that this is for the whole shipping industry.
I haven't seen any reference to what Bugbee said to @calvinfroedge about the delayed drydockings. This will be a bullish surprise.
I haven't seen any reference to what Bugbee said to @calvinfroedge about the delayed drydockings. This will be a bullish surprise.
Containers are up for massive scrapping ahead... But will it be enough?
Dry bulk on the other hand... 😬 That's some really scary stuff..! 😱☠️
This is why the crude fleet has a bright future ahead!
And this is why product tankers have and even brighter future.
The orderbook is frontloaded but mostly with MRs. MRs above 15y old are 24% the fleet. But the orderbook is only 5%.
I expect a bifurcated fleet with older MRs forced to scrap or suffer.
The orderbook is frontloaded but mostly with MRs. MRs above 15y old are 24% the fleet. But the orderbook is only 5%.
I expect a bifurcated fleet with older MRs forced to scrap or suffer.
I see the LPG & LNG fleets falling victims to their own success. But I'm not so knowledgeable about them ask @Kallang22, @mintzmyer, and @aksjefokus for more nuance.
