1. I want to tell you about a country I've been thinking a lot about lately.
2. This country saw, in the latter of half of the past century, very rapid economic development. It emerged as the workshop of the world, with vastly higher standards of living than before, and a thriving commercial class.
3. But 20 years into the new century, hopes that this economic development would lead to a greater degree of democracy have been thwarted. Instead, an entrenched and often venal ruling clique seems more in command than ever.
4. Calls for reform have been silenced and determinedly ignored. Protests have been, at times violently, suppressed. New laws punishing sedition and imposing censorship have been imposed. Dissidents are actively spied upon, and some have fled to other countries avoid persecution.
5. The country I am describing is Britain in 1820.
6. Regency Britain was ruled by a clique of reactionary aristocrats who inherited their power and wealth, and politicians elected by a tiny, and easily controlled, fraction of the population. They resisted even the most moderate efforts to change this.
7. They suspended habeas corpus, censored publications, and spied on anyone who spoke of reform. Reformer William Cobbett had to flee to the US to avoid prosecution. The army was called in to attack peaceful protesters at Manchester, killing over a dozen.
8. Now if you, in 2020, spoke to an Englishman about the likely future of their country in 1820, what would you tell them?
9. I suspect you would say: Yes, things look very bleak. But there are undercurrents going on, in your world, that are going to make change irresistible. Far from being in command, your rulers are hanging on by their fingertips, whether they or you fully realize it.
10. The things you looked to as (now frustrated) sources of hope - the transformation of the economy, the rise of a middle class, the exchange of new ideas - are very real, and no one will be able to ignore their implications. Their full consequences have yet to be realized.
11. What's interesting about this reflection is that Britain, probably more than any other country, serves as the basis for so-called "Modernization Theory" - the idea that economic development leads to political liberalization.
12. But it's worth noting that, to this extent this is valid, even in the case of Britain this was far from a smooth or obvious process. Over a century it make look so, but over years or decades there were times when developments made it appear questionable, or even dead wrong.
13. I don't offer Britain's example as being predictive. I'm not necessarily an advocate or defender of "Modernization Theory" in its simplest form. I just think it's worth remembering, and noting, how even Britain's example was far from a simple or straightforward story.
14. In every period of human history - the Romans, the Renaissance, #100yearsago - we see the surface events: the arguments, the policies, the battles, the personalities, the decisions. And they matter.
15. But if we look and think carefully, we also see the undercurrents, so strong and subtle they often carry these events along like a tide, often without recognition or realization. They make what seem dramatic reversals at the time into tiny blips on the larger chart.
16. In any case, I'm not going to finish this thread by drawing any straightforwards parallels or conclusions. This is less an "argument" about the present as it is a challenge to think more deeply about our own times: what is seen and, perhaps more importantly, unseen.
17. What a person looking at Britain in 1820 was most likely to see was not necessarily all there was to see, or what was most important for accurately perceiving what the future would hold.
18. If you walk away from this thread thinking that Patrick is saying China 2020 = Britain 1820, you're doing this wrong. But if you're doing it right, you may appreciate why I'm not as absolutely certain as some what China 2020 really is, or will become.
To my description of Britain in 1820, let me add: a restive western province populated by an ethnic “minority” that follows what many see as a “dangerous” and alien religion, who have been economically colonized, ruthlessly repressed, and systematically deprived of civil rights.
