Thread by @nytimes

Many have praised Sweden for staying open during the coronavirus outbreak.

We looked at the data: Yes, Sweden is better off than many countries that enforced strict lockdowns. But its outbreak has been far deadlier than those of its neighbors. nyti.ms/3cB6a3N

We measured the impact of the pandemic in Sweden by comparing the number of people who have died in recent months against the average over recent years — which demographers consider the most complete picture of the toll.

Here's how Sweden compares. nyti.ms/3cB6a3N

Across Sweden, almost 30% more people died during the epidemic than is normal, an increase similar to that of the U.S. So while Sweden has avoided the devastating tolls seen in Italy, Spain and Britain, it also has seen an extraordinary increase in deaths. nyti.ms/3cB6a3N

Instead of strict lockdowns, officials said that Swedes could be relied on to go out less and follow sanitation guidelines.

That proved to be true: Swedes went out almost as little as residents of neighboring countries, Google mobility figures show. nyti.ms/3cB6a3N

No two countries are exactly alike, making comparisons inexact. But there is reason to believe that Sweden’s approach may not work as well elsewhere. For example, Sweden has low levels of chronic diseases, like diabetes and obesity. nyti.ms/3cB6a3N

Taken together, the country's high death toll offers a warning, demographers say.

“Sweden will be judged at the finish line,” said one demographer. “But it’s a very high-stakes risk, and the consequences are people's lives.” nyti.ms/3cB6a3N