Thread by @CalibreObscura

[THREAD] On the recent IS video from #Iraq titled "And strike (their) necks".

This video combines operations from all over the country in one large production, namely assasinations, IED/Rocket attacks, and armed assaults.

1/

Much of the footage appears to be from 2019, and hence does not reflect the (Rather high) level of activity today, but is a pretty good portrait of IS operations in Iraq recently.

2/

It shows that complex attacks (Multi stage IEDs, proactive ambushes, large groups) are within the capability of the group, and that efforts are underway to develop additional capabilities.

3/

So, a rough overview of weapons used: Most attackers use the standard AKM/Type 56 and M16A4/A2 rifles, with a few M4/Remington R4 seen (Plus the standard RPG), along with precision rifles. Their squads are often equipped w/ suicide belts. Suppressed Glock 19s/M16 are common.

4/

IS fighters are seen training with the standard spotter/sniper combo, in particular using the Russian Orsis T-5000 rifle, as often used by ISOF. The SVD and M16 are also used. The T-5000 is likely captured from Iraqi forces, possibly years ago.

5/

While the few sniper attacks are unremarkable, it is important to note that IS sniping attacks were a mainstay of their videos for a number of years, but have been lacking recently. See here an urban attack using a M16A4 at medium range.

6/

..It is likely that the group is attempting to rebuild both it's capability and their "hidden danger" style propaganda.

As is standard, IS fighters are seen with multiple thermal optics (Pulsar Apex XD75), both for urban raids against prominent figures and during training.

7/

These are invaluable for low light capability, and are a capability that most Iraqi forces lack, even as "thermal cameras" are often used by authorities to stop IS infilteration, and IS has taken to shooting these to metaphorically and physically blind guard posts.

8/

I mentioned IEDs: An extremely large amount of IED attacks are seen, in particular a well organised triple-IED attack that targeted both an initial location and two troop gathering areas. Although casualties looked low, this is a dangerous capability.

9/

Numerous Chinese and Iranian 107mm rockets are launched, a reminder that PMU-affiliated groups are not the only ones that have access to stocks of these and have the ability to effectively launch them.

10/

This grouping of IS fighters is interesting- note the veteran leader (Lacking limbs) speaking, as well as the mounted SPG-9 RCL, W-85 HMG, and the AKS-74U carried, a status symbol that still rivals the M4 in IS cells' leadership. Note muddied technicals, to avoid airpower.

11/

We get to see both well equiped intelligence-driven high intensity cells (Pic 1) and rural, low level squads in action, with a varying level of skills and TTPs. However, it is a clear reminder that IS is a capable, wide ranging organisation, whilst mainly rural.

12/

Whilst the video has been compared by some (Including myself, initially) to a 5th example of the famous "Clanging of the Swords" series, in reality it shows action of a way lower level than those. If anything, in particular the IED attacks, this media is reminiscent of 2012.

13/

Oh, and the pristine Iranian 81mm M91 with AZ111A2 pattern fuzes appeared more than once. I wonder how...

14/

Remains to be seen just how IS will evolve in 2020, given the current level of activity, is beyond what is seen in the video. As always, what isn't (yet) seen is as important as what is.

I hope that Iraqi efforts deny IS operational space, as otherwise there will be more.

[END]

cc @AlexMello02 @DanieleRaineri @MENA_Conflict @AbraxasSpa @oryxspioenkop @Jake_Hanrahan @Charles_Lister @hxhassan