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THREAD: Nationwide we're continuing to see hospitalizations and deaths fall, both total national data and states outside of hard hit New York tristate region. There are however some states that are experiencing increase cases, hospitalizations, deaths that bear close watching 1/x
Florida is seeing some increase in hospitalizations. The one day surge on May 16 may be a reporting issue, where cases were listed on the 16th that cover two days of reporting. 2/x
Georgia is also seeing a recent uptick in hospitalizations after showing declines. Again, the trend is early and there are not enough data points to draw conclusions. 3/x
Time to hospitalization is typically about 8 days from infection, so if policy and a relaxing of social distancing and of individual practices (less caution, masks, hand washing) is impacting spread, you'd expect to start seeing it get picked up in data heading into this week 4/x
Mississippi is another state that bears close watching, where hospitalizations have ticked up a little in recent days 5/x
Texas doesn't report hospitalizations but is seeing rising cases, although some of this is a reflection of expanded testing.
Arkansas has also seen some recent increases in new cases.
Nationwide, however, we're seeing big increase in testing, and falling positivity rates. This is very optimistic trends. There are, however, selected states where the epidemic may still be expanding, and some states showing increased cases and hospitalizations in recent days
In most states the number of cases are either declining, or flat. Only a handful of states are showing expanding cases based on common models. We expect cases to grow as mitigation is withdrawn; we need to watch closely to make sure the increases are manageable and containable.
Nationwide, recent models suggest doubling time is about 45 days and Ro is around 1.10; evidence of an epidemic that slowed dramatically. While it's still expanding, it's doing so at much slower pace and hopefully there'll be a seasonal effect in the Summer that slows it further.
*One note on the data: Only about 60% of states report hospitalization for covid19. There are large states that don't report this data. In out charts on hospitalizations, we only include data from the states that report.
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