A question which is often raised : Was it possible to anticipate the #coronavirus disaster as early as January ? Of course, and I will prove it in this thread... Picture = timeline of #covid19 
2/5 In the period January-February, politicians and some experts often compared #covid19 with #influenza, consequently minimizing the problem. My best of citations :
3/5 Let us compare #covid19 (left) vs #influenza (right) with numbers already available by the end of January ! You observe already huge differences. My prefered one : immunity ! Since #covid19 is a new virus, WHO estimated that min 70% of the population will be touched.
4/5 Inject those numbers in a basic SEIR model (found everywhere on internet). For comparison, I plot SEIR simulations (with no confinement) with similar scales (cases per 100.000 inhabitants) for #covid19 (left) and #influenza (right).
5/5 Conclusion : all numbers were different (incubation period, recovery, mortality, immunity) so experts/politicians comparing #covid19 with #influenza in January/February were sticking their heads in the sand !
