A question which is often raised : Was it possible to anticipate the #coronavirus disaster as early as January ? Of course, and I will prove it in this thread... Picture = timeline of #covid19 2/5 In the period January-February, politicians and some experts often compared #covid19 with #influenza, consequently minimizing the problem. My best of citations :

1/7 [ANALYSIS] Last day before lifting #lockdown in #Belgium. How is the actual situation ? The situation by province seems green everywhere. What to expect the next days ? It is time for a thread about Re and scenarios. 2/7 Looking at numbers, we observe that on May 4th, we have roughly the same number of active cases than March 16th, BUT with 6 times patients in hospitals than the first day of the #lockdown. However, Re decreased by more than a factor 4 !

1/6 My SEIR model follows the daily data for patients in hospital and ICU. Like ALL other epidemiological models, it is sensitive to many parameters. Nevertheless, it gives trends and the opportunity to test different strategies for leaving the confinement. 2/6 [ACTUAL SCENARIO = CONFINEMENT] Assuming that Re is around 0.8 (as claimed by @sciensano and neglecting the current fluctuation around 1.2) and remains unchanged after May 4, the situation in ICU will improve slowly. Still above 40% of total ICU capacity in June.