1/ Now that COVID-19 lockdowns have mostly ended or lightened up in 🇪🇺, let's see what the aftermath will be for our favorite California, Shanghai, Berlin, Texas and Mars carmaker.
$TSLA $TSLAQ
$TSLA $TSLAQ
2/ Will there be a V-shape rebound? An U? Or an L? We'll see. But we know that lots of ppl have lost their jobs, so the car market will take a while to recover. This will have at least 2 effects.
3/ First, 🇪🇺 demand for BEV's will go down (or not go up as much as w/o C19). That will leave most legacy OEM with battery (and other parts) purchase commitments, but less demand. Remember: BEV's have the highest % of purchased parts.
4/ Second, demand for ICE will go down too. OEM's are pushing BEV's (and PHEV's) to meet strict EU CO2 targets. With less ICE sold, less BEV's are needed to be sold.
5/ On one side, this is lucky for $TSLA in 🇪🇺. Maybe OEM's won't drop prices that heavily, putting less pricing pressure on $TSLAQ. But market price levels have already been set below Tesla prices, so new entrants from BMW, Merc, Audi and the others will still be cheaper.
6/ On the other side, legacy OEM could still end up with excess BEV production. Will they dump prices further in the EU to sell them? Or will they start US expansion earlier, attacking #Tesla in its home turf? We have yet to see, but my bet is on the latter.
7/ If legacy OEM starts focusing on the US market, we'll see interesting things. Buy American🇺🇸? 48% of the US auto market is Big 3 + Tesla. 52% are imports, down from 65% in 2000 or 71% in 1990, despite tariffs. Ppl buy what's good for them.
8/ Corona took away ~3 months from our lives. But things haven't come to a complete halt in the meantime. $F Mach-E got 3 months closer. Just as anything else $F, $GM and $FCAU plan in the US.
Things haven't got easier on Deer Creek Road.
Things haven't got easier on Deer Creek Road.
9/ Errata: Tweet 7/ should read: 48% are Big 3 + Tesla, down from 65% in 2000 and 71% in 1990.
