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1/ There have been lots of discussions around UK among $TSLA and $TSLAQ. Will the UK be the next Netherlands due to tax changes coming into effect on 4/6 in the UK?
2/ As most of you are well aware, the tax hike (affecting mostly the Model 3) in the Netherlands from 1/1/20 caused Tesla's Model 3 to become the best selling vehicle in NL, obviously the best selling BEV too, by far.
3/ In the UK, the direction is the opposite: they are decreasing the BiK rate by 4/6/20.

To my Americans: BiK applies to you if you have a company car that you use for private purposes (you do). You basically add % of the car price to your salary and pay PIT after it.
4/ For example, if you earn a fair £80k, you get a company car worth £40k, the BiK rate is 33%, you pay your taxes after £93.2k. This way your £40k car will cost an additional £5.28k p.a. to you.

Pretty much everyone above £50k will get a company car as part of his package.
5/ BiK depends on CO2 emissions. 33% is typical for a 3-Series BMW (150-154 g/km).

EV's will be (almost) exempt from BiK for 3 years starting 4/6/20. Saving £4-7k/year is quite an incentive, isn't it? Bulls cheer, bears fear a huge Model 3 boom in the UK.
6/ Excellent bull thread here: , bear here:

Make sure to read the comments too, as they point out important errors or different views in both.
7/ My opinion: it will boost BEV sales for sure. In 20H1, there won't be real direct competition for the M3/Y?. However, the UK situation is not the same as the NL one. Let me explain.
8/ @TESLAcharts is right that the *introduction* if a subsidy is not the same as the termination if it. NL wasn't that extremely hot for #Tesla in Q1 and Q2.
9/ The NL situation in 19H2 was unique. Due to CO2 regulations coming into effect in 2020, OEM's held back deliveries in 2020. Only exceptions are Audi E-Tron and MG (otherwise almost non-existent in Europe) in NL. Tesla had the whole playing field for itself in 19H2 in NL.
10/ Come 2020, OEM's will have to sell ~1.3M+ BEV's and PHEV's in Europe to avoid fines. That's 3 times 2019 figures. There is no organic demand that jumps this much, so they'll have to stimulate demand. That you do via price cutting.
11/ My single most important takeaway re Europe in 2020 is that it only takes one single OEM lagging behind in xEV sales to dump prices, others will have to follow to keep up. Chicken game. And Tesla can't cross-finance, needs to live on EV sales only.
12/ Back to the UK. Insurance premiums are high for Teslas in the UK.

13/ There won't be any direct competition to the M3/Y in 20H1. But others will come at a slightly lower segment, at much lower (~30%) price points. VW ID.3, Opel Corsa-e, Peugeot e-208 and 2008 are round the corner. Honda e and e-Mini, although technically sub-par, are stylish.
14/ There will be the PoleStar 2, and current Hyundai Kona, Kia Niro, which are very decent vehicles and are direct competitors. In H2, more competition will come.
15/ Is that all, fly? you ask. No, that's not all. Some will stick with ICE, we aren't talking about them. But many forget PHEV's.

Let me borrow TC's table and highlight something else. The BMW 330e bracket.
16/ It has a 34-36 mile electric range and <<50g/km CO2. 5.9s 0-60 vs 5.3/4.4s M3 SR+/LR AWD. Not the same but still speedy enough

The BMW starts at £38k (call it £45k almost fully loaded), M3 SR+ is £38.5k, LR AWD is £47k

BiK diff is 10%, so £1.8k/yr, £5.4k/3yr
17/ So the M3 SR+ still has advantages over a high performance Bimmer 3. But an LR AWD is almost the same price+tax-wise. Add insurance, deduct fuel and service (if any). Add charging inconvenience (most live in condos, difficult to charge - many don't charge PHEV's).
18/ There is already a Merc C PHEV, 5.7s 0-60 (and E and above, obviously), Audi is coming with their PHEV's (and CNG's). Less premium brands are coming too.

To sum up, even before Merc EQA, BMW i4 and alike come, there are alternatives. Not NL.
19/ So do I expect a Tesla boom in Q1/Q2 and beyond? More sales: yes. Boom, no.

Tesla booked 4 ships for Jan so far. That compares to 8 in October. The difference can't be explained by China alone.
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