THRED @StateDept has published a policy paper by AS Christopher Ford, outlining "T Suite's" view on competitive strategy against China and Russia. If implemented, this approach will further deepen security cooperation between Beijing and Moscow. 1/ 
2/ Link to Ford's memo, who apart from his role as AS is performing the duties for Under Secretary on Arms Control and International Security, is here 👇. Ford states that this paper builds on @realDonaldTrump's 2017 NSS that lumps China&Russia together state.gov/wp-content/upl…
3/ Ford doesn't go into Sino-Russian security cooperation, but describes "whole-of-system" challenges that Beijing and Moscow separately present to the U.S. He then outlines "make competitors run more slowly" approach that should guide the U.S. in thwarting this threat
4/ In a nutshell, Ford calls the U.S. to sell cutting-edge weapons to both American allies and Russian&Chinese adversaries, as well as impede dangerous technology transfers to Beijing&Moscow through export controls, visa screenings, sanctions etc.
5/ The memo doesn't contain too many new policy ideas, but it again, as the 2017 NSS, lumps China and Russia together - this time in a sensitive area that has recently seen an increase in cooperation between Moscow&Beijing as a result to American actions
6/ There are natural reasons why China and Russia would want to increase their security ties, as I've argued in this piece for @ForeignAffairs. But there are certain limits on how far both would like to go - absent U.S. moves foreignaffairs.com/articles/china…
7/ U.S.-Russia confrontation has moved Moscow closer to Beijing, resulting in sales of Su-35 and S-400 to PLA in 2015. See analysis by Vasily Kashin for @CarnegieRussia: carnegie.ru/commentary/599… & carnegie.ru/commentary/627…
8/ The2017 NSS and spiral of U.S.-Russia confrontation under @realDonaldTrump has prompted the Kremlin to step up security ties with China even further, and help Beijing in building its missile launch detection system: carnegie.ru/commentary/801…
9/ Here is some more background on Russia's thinking narrated by @CarnegieRussia's very own @DmitriTrenin: carnegie.ru/2019/11/19/how…
10/ If anything, lumping China and Russia together by senior @StateDept official will strengthen the voices of those who say that deepening security ties that is just one step below a formal military alliance is the way to go for Beijing&Moscow
11/ There are plenty of such voices internally, there are some calls in the public domain. Here is the most recent example from general Wang Haiyun 王海运, former PRC defense attache in Moscow cn3.uscnpm.org/model_item.htm…
12/ Not everyone in Moscow is happy with an idea of stepping up the security cooperation with China even further and siding clearly with Beijing amid unfolding Sino-American confrontation. @DmitriTrenin outlines the logic here: carnegie.ru/commentary/817…
13/ But if the U.S. policy is limited at pushing back both China and Russia, without providing incentives for Moscow to halt its defense cooperation with Beijing at current levels, Sino-Russian military block will become a self-fulfilling prophecy
14/ U.S.&allies should start being granular and practical in addressing a key question: how not to push Russia even further into #PaxSinica, a China-dominated order in Eurasia, without appeasing the Kremlin and compromising core Western values/interests? END
