Try as they might, I don't think blaming the independent scientists on SAGE is going to wash. Not even a little bit. Here are the main reasons why ... thread.... 1/7
2/ It's been known since 2006 that "case isolation or household quarantine" would be most effective in slowing a pandemic and should be planned for: nature.com/articles/natur…
But such "social measures" were rejected for cost reasons by Cab Office/DH in 2011.
But such "social measures" were rejected for cost reasons by Cab Office/DH in 2011.
3/ The same study also warned that social distancing might be spontaneous and happen whether government liked it or not (Doh!)
3/ Now to the current outbreak. This was published on 25 Jan (and presumably given to Sage at its 1st meeting on 22 Jan - hence no published docs from that meeting). It is explicit on the shitstorm heading our way and what needs to be done to prevent it... imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-inf…
4/ Then there is this on 16 March (well ahead of lockdown) and available to Gov earlier. It warns Britain will suffer hundreds of thousands of deaths and a full suppression strategy (ie lockdown) is the only option if those deaths are to be avoided... imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-inf…
4/ I know what you're thinking. It's all Fergusson. He's been on about this since SARS took out Asia in 2004 (the bastard!). Ah, but it's not. This is from the chaps at the London school saying the same at the same time or earlier. medrxiv.org/content/10.110…
5/ But was the data right? And why were ministers hesitant to act? This finds the projections were right. But here's the killer - the gov could have been much more confident in them had they done more early testing (as they were advised in Jan) eurosurveillance.org/content/10.280…
6/ So who to blame if you can't blame the scientists? Well, there are the officials at the DH who knobbled the original pandemic plan. They are now running about saying (idiotically) that all would have have been fine had it been influenza because everyone would have died anyway
7/ There's also the small matter of Jeremy Hunt II, chair of the Health Select Committee, the main investigative body. He may be related to Jeremy Hunt 1, health secretary for the period in question and, er, chief defendant in the case of #Covid_19 .
