IMPORTANT. Here is the modelling behind the UK Govs #covidー19uk strategy.
Big choice ahead: 1/Mitigation: 250k deaths, or 2/Suppression: 20k deaths but with a lockdown that ends only once a vax or treatment found.
imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial…
Big choice ahead: 1/Mitigation: 250k deaths, or 2/Suppression: 20k deaths but with a lockdown that ends only once a vax or treatment found.
imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial…
Both strategies have much the same mix of measures, all of which were announced tonight by the PM. The big difference is they are not lifted in the suppression option. My guess is government will now play it by ear - how long can Britain change its behaviour for
The hard fact driving these hard choices is NHS surge capacity. Remember that lovely 'flatten the curve' graphic the Economist put round with health capacity as a horizontal line across the middle? Well, it was right except in UK that line is at the bottom. Here's the real thing: 
This table shows clearly the massive stress on secondary care the virus causes.... its huge..
Also very worrying is this: They find that - unmitigated - the epidemic slightly exceeds the UK 'realistic worse case scenario' for an outbreak in terms of total deaths...
Last, this tables shows the life and death choices that need to be made. We asked for transparency and this is as transparent as it comes. 20,000 deaths or 250,000? The choice is partly the PMs but I suspect mostly the nation's
One last thing. This is the flattening the curve graph the gov gave out last week. Compare the NHS capacity line with the one above. Something really has changed rapidly in the last four days or...
