Then its lousy analysis (more likely it isn't proper analysis at all). Because no serious policy maker can make a confident prediction right now about the state of the UK or global economy at the end of the year.
Unless said analysis is published (and we haven't seen an impact assessment for UK-EU trade according to government plans) it cannot be the basis for policy. Just another message.
If global demand is falling there could be an argument that our exports will collapse so higher trade barriers don't matter. Alternately you could argue the best prepared countries will fight to maintain their exports.
As ever on UK trade. If an FTA with the EU is so unimportant why is that different with the US? If we stop talking with the EU why not stop all our trade talks? Of course we won't. Just as there's no proper analysis that the covid-19 crisis means an FTA with the EU is pointless.
One specific question we should ask about UK government decisions on external relations in the coming months - what will this do for the decisions of global businesses (whether or not UK owned) on where to locate their production. The fear being the answer will be not the UK.
