Last week, 4.4 million workers applied for unemployment benefits. That is an improvement over the 6 million per week we saw in late March/early April, but it is a substantial increase over the prior week and still well over 4 times the worst week of the Great Recession. 1/
Of the 4.4 mil workers who applied for unemployment benefits last week, 2.17 mil applied for regular state unemployment insurance (not seasonally adjusted), and 2.23 mil applied for Pandemic Unemployment Assistance. So there are now slightly more PUA claims than regular UI. 2/
Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA) is the new federal program that goes to workers who are not eligible for regular unemployment insurance (UI), like gig workers. Note: 16 states and the District of Columbia are not yet reporting PUA claims, so PUA is being undercounted. 3/
What is the total number of workers on UI or PUA in this recession so far? We can add it up. As of May 9th, 22.9 mil workers had made it through at least the first round of regular state UI processing (“continued” claims), and 4.5 mil filed initial UI claims since then. 4/
And as of May 2nd, 6.1 million workers had made it through at least the first round of PUA processing, and 4.1 million have filed initial PUA claims since then. So altogether, that’s 37.7 million. That is close to one in four workers. 5/
And things are still getting worse. The most recent Goldman Sachs forecasts imply that they now believe the unemployment rate will average more than 30% for May and June. 6/
Aaaand here’s your weekly reminder that overall numbers mask the fact that recessions hit different race & gender groups differently b/c of things like occupational segregation, discrimination, and other labor market disparities. 7/
And your other weekly reminder that since our health care system ties health insurance to work, millions are also losing their health insurance. 8/ epi.org/blog/16-2-mill…
Policymakers need to do much, much more. For example, a prolonged depression is GUARANTEED without significant federal aid to state and local governments. 9/ epi.org/blog/a-prolong…
Indeed, we are at a fork in the road as a country right now. As of mid-April, about two-thirds of workers who are out of work as a result of the virus report they expect to be called back to their prior job. 10/ epi.org/blog/the-coron…
Whether furloughed workers will actually be called back or whether furloughs will turn into layoffs will hinge on whether policymakers enact an effective testing and contact tracing so that people will feel safe enough to reengage in normal activity as the economy reopens… 11/
… and on whether federal policymakers provide enough aid to individuals, businesses, and state and local governments so that confidence and demand are relatively high as the economy reopens, and those furloughed workers are able to get back to work. 12/
Note, folks are pointing out that the number of initial PUA claims for Massachusetts, 1.2 million, looks implausibly large, and could be a misreport. Stay tuned... 13/
And a correction from the 3rd post in this thread. It is 15 states and DC—not 16 states and DC—that are not yet reporting PUA claims. 14/
Note, the number of Massachusetts PUA claims was indeed a misreport 15/
This blog post is this tweet thread in blog-post form, but I have corrected all the numbers in it to account for the Massachusetts misreport. 16/ epi.org/blog/nearly-on…
And want to see how your state is doing? Here are breakdowns by state. 17/ epi.org/blog/more-than… @JuliaWolfe94 @joriskywalker
