In the last seven weeks, more than 30 million workers applied for unemployment insurance (UI) through regular state UI programs. That is nearly one in five workers. 1/ 
This does not include people who applied for Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA), the program that extends UI to many workers who are not eligible for regular UI but are nevertheless out of work b/c of the virus (e.g. gig workers). But DOL is now reporting PUA claims. 2/
DOL reports that nearly a million people had PUA claims processed by April 18th, and at least another 1.4 million had filed PUA claims since then. 3/
Note: DOL reports 2 figures for workers who applied for regular UI in the last 7 weeks, 33.5 mil (seasonally adjusted) and 30.7 mil (not adjusted). The way DOL does seasonal adjustments is weird right now, so I use unadjusted numbers because that’s the actual number of claims. 4/
Will tomorrow’s #JobsReport show 30.7 mil jobs lost? Probably not. First, tomorrow’s report only looks at losses through mid-April, by which point “only” 24.4 million had applied for regular UI. 5/
Further, the overall employment change is not just the number of layoffs where people filed for UI. It is also affected by hires, job losses where people didn’t file for UI, quits, and worker deaths. All of those components are moving A LOT right now, in different directions. 5/
What about the unemployment rate? All else equal, job losses of the magnitude of the regular UI claims of the last seven weeks would translate into an unemployment rate of 22.2%. But as just noted, all else will not be equal. 6/
Further, the official unemployment rate will likely not reflect all coronavirus-related employment losses because people are only counted as unemployed if they are actively seeking work, which is currently impossible for most. 7/
When looking at overall numbers, remember that recessions hit different racial groups differently b/c of things like occupational segregation, discrimination, and other labor market disparities. Black and Hispanic workers are likely seeing much greater job losses. 8/
Aaaaand your weekly reminder that since our health care system ties health insurance to work, workers aren’t just losing their jobs. 9/ epi.org/blog/12-7-mill…
Our long-neglected UI system is strained, to say the least. An EPI survey finds that for every 100 workers who filed for UI, 37 tried to apply but couldn't get through. If the system could handle the flood of claims, claims would be much, much higher. 10/ epi.org/blog/unemploym…
States clearly don’t have what they need to effectively deliver crucial relief to workers & their families. We must provide more funding to states to hire staff to speed up processing and to make improvements to websites and other administrative infrastructure. 11/
Short-Time Compensation is a fantastic alternative to layoffs where employers reduce work hours rather than lay off workers & workers get partial UI. But in latest data, 88,447 workers were receiving STC, a tiny fraction of the 17.8 million receiving regular state benefits. 12/
CBO projects that without additional relief, the unemployment rate will average 16% in the 3rd quarter of this year and 10.1% for the entire calendar year of 2021. The relief and recovery packages passed so far are not enough, and more aid is crucial. 13/ cbo.gov/publication/56…
The next package should invest in UI, including extending the across-the-board $600 increase in weekly benefits well past its expiration at the end of July—at least until unemployment is falling rapidly and is at a manageable level. 14/ epi.org/blog/the-extra…
The next package should also provide a huge amount of aid to state and local governments, include worker protections, invest in our democracy, provide relief to the postal service, and make significant investments in testing and contact tracing. 15/ epi.org/blog/the-next-…
Regular state UI claims are definitely declining. Last week’s figure is still three times the worst week of the Great Recession, but it’s a welcome improvement. However, PUA claims (not shown) are now just starting to be processed/reported. 16/
Here's this thread in blog post form, if useful. 17/ epi.org/blog/nearly-on…
