SHORT THREAD: Lots of discussion in our family on how much #COVID19 risk to allow. This is forced on us by the zeitgeist, the political messaging, our kids' desire to meet up with friends, and even their friends' parents' level of risk taking🙄. So we created this process. /1
2/n This may not work for you, and it may have serious flaws. Use at your own risk. I welcome criticism.
First, when we decide on a particular risk, we use this chart. It is a typical risk analysis tool in aerospace and other industries. (Source: researchgate.net/figure/Example…)
First, when we decide on a particular risk, we use this chart. It is a typical risk analysis tool in aerospace and other industries. (Source: researchgate.net/figure/Example…)
3/n We want to stay in the green as much as possible. As a family we feel that we are now being forced to accept occasional events in the yellow, but we will try to minimize the number of times those events happen. We can probably still keep out of the purple and red.
4/ So when we decide for a particular event (like, when our daughter is asked to go to a party with 10 kids...) we have to estimate the likelihood she will get COVID19 from the party and the consequence for her *and our family* considering what else is going on at the time.
5/ The next tweet is how I'm estimating the likelihood one of us will get COVID-19 from a particular event. This is a crude model and may have serious flaws, but this is the best I can do right now. (Too bad the government isn't helping us with stuff like this.🙄)
6/ Click image to see the entire calculation.
7/ So using that calculation, if my youngest daughter is invited to a party with only 10 other people, and they will be roughhousing, then I estimate 0.55% chance she will get sick with #COVID19. Not just exposed, but actually sick. I consider that to be Unlikely, but not Rare.
8/ Next we must consider the consequences *assuming she does* get sick right now. What are the chances she will have permanent or long-term harm? What's the risk someone else in the family gets it, maybe even die? Will we expose her grandmother? How will it disrupt our jobs?
9/ To be really thorough (like we are in aerospace) each of those questions would be a distinct risk calculation. It isn't realistic to expect families to use the same level of rigor, so we are rolling all those questions into ONE BIG INFORMED GUESS about the consequence.
10/ If Natalie does get sick (a 0.55% likelihood), the subsequent odds she will have permanent damage are (also) low. Not zero, but low. We're calling that a Minor consequence, like getting the flu. But if she spreads it in our family, those consequences are Moderate or Major...
11/ Because if I get it from her, we may not know before I drive her grandmother to Maine next week. Or if we do know, I will have to cancel the trip, cheating my Mom from the biggest joy in this stage of her life. And if I get sick, then it disrupts my NASA work very seriously.
12/ I'm hiring people and trying to get approval per UCF's new COVID-19 processes to get into the lab and do urgent work for NASA's Artemis. If I get sick after the work is started, people can work without me for a month. But if I get sick now, it will cause a hard 1 month delay.
13/ We have to consider all this and decide if this *overall* is a Moderate or Major consequence (recognizing there are still likelihood calculations buried in the assessment). This is hard, but at least it gives our family a basis to discuss reasonably & face our sad feelings.
14/ For Natalie's middle school graduation party, considering everything, we made it a Moderate risk. Moderate+Unlikely puts it in the Yellow zone. I think in the current reality we are forced to accept a few yellows per week or per month, like it or not, but we'll minimize them.
15/15 (*big giant sigh*) Decisions like this are hard when the surrounding culture isn't giving us support based on good, hard science in a spirit of pulling together.
