SAGE and iSAGE
SAGE have just released papers on schools.
Not a huge amount(well as much as I wanted)however it doesnt support the government's date and guidence documents
9 models of increasing numbers were included, gov hasnt followed any of these
Of the handful of studies (many other international studies have not been covered) there were some studies that suggested children are less infectious yet once again the evidence was inconclusive.
Today's RO figure 0.7-1 shows this is a big gamble
Student numbers should not be increased until an effective contact tracing system is in place.
Once established local authorities should have control with direct access to figures around RO to quantify risks.
Risk should be reducing every 2 weeks, unless social distancing and other measures crumble and reverse the trend in infections.
If downwards trends continues June 15th sees half the risks, a few weeks in July would mean risks would be a quarter, this is before taking contact tracing into accout
If we were to follow a suppression method then by September infection could be low enough that combined with contact tracing that social distancing wouldn't be needed except when outbreaks occur.
Or we can have a reckless charge and go back to where we were a couple of months ago.
Government should step away from an arbitrary date, accept NEUs offer for a collaborative meaningful workgroup of unions, central and local government to redraft the plans, and focus for now on those students who would benefit most from additional support
Without union pressure would the SAGE docs have been published before 1st June?