From the beginning of the #COVIDー19 crisis, a few things have been obvious to anyone who wasn't (a) naive, e.g. #DonaldTrump; (b) ideological, e.g. #theAtlantic; or (c) susceptible to bureaucratic arrogance, e.g. #CDC; ... (1/6)
ONE: There's no way to 'beat' #COVIDー19 (or any other virus), but we can protect the vulnerable. TWO: While you can flatten the curve (infection rate), you can't dramatically change the area under the curve (how may people ultimately get infected). ... (2/6)
THREE: Preventing ICU overload is the only real logic for lockdowns, and ICU capacity the only sensible criteria for re-opening. FOUR: Mitigation measures must be data-drive and locally tailored. Blanket policies at the Federal level are likely to be counterproductive. ... (3/6)
FIVE: If feasible, we will need population-scale antibody testing to determine who can move about freely and who can't. SIX: Given the age/mortality profile of #COVIDー19, if you're 60+ you're going to locked down until there's a vaccine or you say "screw it." ... (4/6)
When I left China in mid-Feb after a short visit, there were 800 reported cases of #COVIDー19UK . Everyone in the airport was wearing a mask. It was pretty clear how this would play out. (I stocked up on groceries on the way home from the airport). ... (5/6)
I'm not prescient. There are plenty of things in life I didn't see coming. At times, all of us suffer from naiveté, ideology and arrogance, but these are particularly dangerous failings in those who are tasked to inform and protect us. (6/6) 
