The pandemic is a once-in-a-century occurrence that will probably shape our generation more than any other event. As a consequence, actions taken by leaders over the next few years, in a world in flux, will have more long-term consequences for their nations and beyond.
As the FT's Janan Ganesh argued in a recent column, the next US-president is likely to have an era-shaping opportunity, a bit like Truman after 1945. His actions shaped global order and US foreign policy for decades.
ft.com/content/cb3085…
ft.com/content/cb3085…
Yet the same probably applies to leaders of other nations, given how profoundly different the world will look like once after the pandemic. For example, @jamescrabtree recently argued that the entire concept of Emerging Markets may cease to exist.
foreignpolicy.com/2020/05/03/eme…
foreignpolicy.com/2020/05/03/eme…
If we assume, as Ganesh does, that the policies and choices made now may set the tone for future governments, countries which currently happen to have smart leaders will be rewarded disproportionately -- simply because, due to the historic context, their leadership matters more.
Even in smaller countries, presidents and prime ministers will be crucial as societies need to determine how to adapt to new realities in the areas of health policy, employment, inequality, foreign policy, trade, education etc, which will all be massively impacted by COVID-19.
Countries that currently happen to have bad leaders, on the other hand, may end up being punished more than under normal circumstances. In addition to mishandling the crisis, they will fail to lay the foundation needed to initiate the (probably painful) long-term adaptation.
In Brazil, for example, Bolsonaro may thus become a highly consequential leader in the negative sense. Not only does he refuse to accept scientific evidence, making an agile response to future COVID-19 waves over the next years impossible.
Potentially even worse, he excludes Brazil from the global debate about a post-COVID world and poses a massive obstacle to confronting the numerous challenges the country (along with the rest of the world) will face in the areas mentioned above.
While other gov's are looking ahead and work on building up a massive testing capacity to handle future waves, cooperating with other countries, promoting debates on issues like Universal Basic Income and prepare public schools for future pandemics, Brazil risks being left behind
