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1/ 1st $TSLA ship this Q went to APAC instead of Europe, as everyone expected*.

The second ship? When is there going to be a second ship? Both candidates are far away from the port, doing nothing (h/t @TESLAcharts).

2/ * Shipments to Europe are the firsts because it takes longer to ship to Europe. This is the Musk way of managing Cash Flow: fill distant locations first, near ones the last, so EOQ cash will look good, helped by ABL.
3/ I have a theory that Musk will kitchen sink EU Q2, blame it on COVID and try to get away with it. As the markets stand, he might succeed.

4/ But is COVID a good excuse? Hell, no.

A) in China, it's been over since mid March. Not a single new case today. Car sales has already recovered.

5/ B) US: lockdowns have been lifted in many states/counties, well before deliveries usually take place (last month of the quarter). Remember that Tesla has ended Q1 with a large inventory, so supply shouldn't be a constraint. They will have 6 weeks of production too, ~50k+ cars.
6/ C) Europe: lockdowns have also ended or eased significantly in most places. April deliveries have been pretty normal or even quite good in most countries:
7/ But we have one mystery, the former 3rd largest WW market, Norway, with 5 (five) Model 3's registered in May so far.
8/ Norway has ample SuX inventory, but no 3. This shows that a) they are struggling to sell SuX, b) something is up with the 3.
9/ To sum up, there should be no supply constraints. Demand shouldn't be limited by lockdowns anywhere in the world. Deliveries neither. Supply should be there in China, APAC, US and Europe ex Norway (?).

COVID-19 isn't a valid excuse for Q2. We'll see how good it's gonna be.
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