🚨 “An Oxford University vaccine trial has only a 50 per cent chance of success because coronavirus is fading so rapidly in Britain, a project co-leader has warned.”
H/T @JordanSchachtel
smh.com.au/world/europe/l…
H/T @JordanSchachtel
smh.com.au/world/europe/l…
“Professor Adrian Hill said an upcoming Oxford vaccine trial, involving 10,000 volunteers, threatened to return ‘no result’ because of low transmission of COVID-19 in the community.” - 5/24/20 smh.com.au/world/europe/l…
cc @kerpen @AlexBerenson @jeffmason1 @kaitlancollins
cc @kerpen @AlexBerenson @jeffmason1 @kaitlancollins
CDC writes Corona’s death rate is 0.40% for symptomatic cases but they say that more than a third cases don’t have symptoms. When you factor this in, the CFR of Coronavirus is under 0.30 in the US and this - as @RMConservative notes - is despite the MESSY nursing home policy! 
For context, the Flu’s CFR is 0.10% of cases. Basically as of days ago, the CDC places the Coronavirus death rate at almost 3 times that of the flu. This is way lower than the 10 to 34 times the flu used by models (which also claimed that Corona is 3 times as contagious as flu).
Ferguson’s (Imperial) model that 500,000 in the UK will die this year from Corona assumed that three quarter of the UK (50 million) will get it and 1% of those will die. No country, no matter how lax the rules, has both at the same time: Contagion of that level AND 1% death rate!
The point is NOT to ignore Covid. The point is to implement polices based on accurate Hospital/ICU rates. There has been ample studies/data that show that the mid/late March assumptions were flawed. You needed to shutdown then? Cool, but now we need policy that reflect the data.
Why? Because the shutdowns were done to flatten the curve so that the system won’t collapse. Ok, so make sure you know what the system will really face. Secondly, prolonged lockdowns have deadly consequences too: Suicides, fatal ODs and domestic abuse reports are all up!
See attached; the third week of March when the NY lockdowns went into force. 13% to 17% of KNOWN cases needed the hospital. When you assume that these rates will hold in a mass contagion, of course you incorrectly assume that ‘I need 30,000 Vents in 14-21 days.’
Cuomo et al didn’t know better then? Ok. But what about now? The CDC wrote last week that the hospital rates of symptomatic cases is 3.4% which places the overall hospitalization rate more than 80% lower of what it appeared in March. Why are lockdown policies not adjuted?
