I do not use any epidemiological model, I test this growth with different forecast models using the past long series.
Thus I make predictions for 3 to 4 weeks with 95% confidence level
But today, when I look at the data, I got a chilling feeling 1/n
Thus I make predictions for 3 to 4 weeks with 95% confidence level
But today, when I look at the data, I got a chilling feeling 1/n
When I looked at the past 6 days testing data & positive cases
India done a total of 6.4 lakh tests & detected 35699 cases. Here each 18 test throw out 1 positive case
So if we have capacity to do 2 lakh tests per day, we will find more than 11,000 cases daily!
India done a total of 6.4 lakh tests & detected 35699 cases. Here each 18 test throw out 1 positive case
So if we have capacity to do 2 lakh tests per day, we will find more than 11,000 cases daily!
If we have now the capability to do 5 lakh tests per day we will find more than 27K cases per day!
As we increase our testing to around 1.1 lakh cases, we limit daily cases to 6700!
As we increase our testing to around 1.1 lakh cases, we limit daily cases to 6700!
Regarding the death rate, as we locked our villagers w/o any transportation to reach the district hospitals for this long window of lockdown, if at least one district had 2 or 3 cases under reporting, we will now have more than 6.5% to 7% mortality rates!
We witnessed the controversy in Delhi, whether to count deaths as COVID or pass that to comorbidities. We are no more confirming whether the death of people, if they did not test COVID positive before death.
Now imagine the rest of the India, which has no media glare
Now imagine the rest of the India, which has no media glare
Since @samirsaran you have the health data, which I don't have in my possession, please look at last years SARI plus ILI during March to May.
Then compare their numbers with the testing India already done! That will enlighten us how poor we are testing now!
Then compare their numbers with the testing India already done! That will enlighten us how poor we are testing now!
I am not ready to swallow this mortality rate or total our confirmed cases. Because whatever literature I read so far and my logical reasoning do not buy the numbers!
This is my feeling for the past one week. So I am really exhausted with this!
This is my feeling for the past one week. So I am really exhausted with this!
If India is looking at its testing numbers to see that we are testing enough, it should ask loud:
1. How may air travellers pass through undetected due to thermal screening & select countries
2. How many of our 25 lakh health workers we tested?
3. How many SARI & ILI patients
1. How may air travellers pass through undetected due to thermal screening & select countries
2. How many of our 25 lakh health workers we tested?
3. How many SARI & ILI patients
I collected data from a State for 2019 ARI + ILI for March to May - a medium State. It itself was around 2.5 lakh case!
I don't know what is the All India number for these!
But read papers by ICMR in IJMR& a paper by a doctor from CMC Velloor published in MedRxiv
I don't know what is the All India number for these!
But read papers by ICMR in IJMR& a paper by a doctor from CMC Velloor published in MedRxiv
They correlated the SARI data and those papers argue for extensive testing.
No district level data in the public domain though IDSP cover now almost 98% districts.
How independent researchers can study our cases?
India has no data transparency! No one care too!
No district level data in the public domain though IDSP cover now almost 98% districts.
How independent researchers can study our cases?
India has no data transparency! No one care too!
I am not able to write the blog promised to you all because the lurking danger I see is so dark and I do not want to be an alarmist or cynic.
Please take care, don't swallow those Sarkari press conferences by Paul and Luv. Be safe!
Please take care, don't swallow those Sarkari press conferences by Paul and Luv. Be safe!
