James Wilson Profile picture
Civil engineer, data analyst, my allegiance is to facts alone, highly opinionated, beware! Crushes? water, law, finance, policy, books & DSLR 🥂
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8 Aug
TN Sholayar reservoir on upper reaches of Chalakudy River full and discharging through saddle spillway to Parambikulam reservoir, which have 30% space

Masonry spillway to Kerala Sholayar is stopped at today 8 AM, which also has 37% space.

Spill through Tunacadavu is so negligible amount to 2-3 cumecs and TN diverts water from there through contour canal.

To get a perspective, the discharge through Chalakudy river at Poringalkuthu downstream is around 491 cumecs & further down at Arangali is around 954 cumecs.
Yesterday Kerala & TN engineers after a through deliberations, taken a decision to divert a part of flood waters from Lower Nirar to Idamalayar, as it has space rather divert it to TNS and from there to KS. Thus postponed KS spilling at least till this spell upto 10th.
Read 5 tweets
24 Jul
Yangtze deluge tests limits of Three Gorges Dam

Top engineer says the dam failed to regulate flood despite deluge being less severe than worst-case parameters

Three Gorges Dam drain water at 37,000 cumecs since Tuesday, after the reservoir’s water level increased by more than eight meters in 48 hours to 163.5 meters. The height of the dam is 185 meters.  

To get a perspective, Idukki Dam discharged 1500 cumecs in 2018 floods
Now listen...

Stories fantasizing the dam being close to collapse pop up annually.

But according to experts, even in face of severe floods and torrential rain this year, the dam will stay firm and strong as ever, if not stronger, rather than deformed or collapsed.
Read 15 tweets
20 Jul
India yesterday tested 2,56,039 samples and found that 40,425 positive cases.

That means our daily positivity is now a frightening 15.8%!

This means yesterday, each 6 tests done, India identified one positive #COVID19 cases.

We are sitting on the top a ticking time bomb!
Of course, every monday, we used to see more daily positivity...I surmise it is because only Govt labs are working on Sundays and the ones who tested there have great chance of positive than pvt labs where affluent ones go for ensure they are not infected.
Having said that yesterday's jump over previous day is phenomenal.

Look at the data on Mondays in this month. data in bracket is difference from previous day.

6/7 - 13.4% (3.4% excess)
13/7 - 13.1% (2.9% excess)
20/7 - 15.8% (4.9% excess)
Read 3 tweets
18 Jul
Coronavirus: Six types of COVID-19 identified by scientists in 'major' breakthrough for treatment 

Symptoms not widely linked to the virus - like confusion and abdominal pain - are found to be hallmarks of its most severe forms.

Although a continuous cough, fever and loss of smell are usually highlighted as the three key symptoms of the illness, data gathered from around 1,600 users of the COVID Symptom Study app in the UK and US shows that people can experience a wide range of different effects.
These can include headaches, muscle pains, fatigue, diarrhoea, confusion, loss of appetite, shortness of breath and more.
Read 9 tweets
17 Jul
India's Response to COVID-19 Is a Humanitarian Disaster

The government enforced a strict lockdown for weeks, giving the illusion of responsible policy.

But all the while it has failed to provide adequate medical and economic support!

But in the Modi government’s scheme of priorities, COVID-19 was initially swamped by other preoccupations:

Assembly elections in Delhi, murderous communal atrocities in the aftermath of a profoundly provocative Citizenship Amendment Act passed last year,
Donald Trump’s visit to India in late February, and

the politics of regime change in the state of Madhya Pradesh.
Read 11 tweets
16 Jul
India's journey to a million #COVID19 cases
Now MoHFW officially declared that we have crossed a million #COVID19 cases.

Total infections - 1003832
Daily infections reaching around 35,000 with no respite at near future!

This graph shows our lockdown, unlock and some numbers.
Our testing is increased manifold and as of yesterday, we had done a total of 1,30,72,718 tests with daily tests of 3.33 lakh.

Though we increased our testing, our TPCC is falling or inversely positivity is increasing, yesterday it was 10%.
Read 5 tweets
6 Jul
The potential for Covid-19 to spread through airborne transmission by lingering in the air is being underplayed by the World Health Organization, a group of scientists have said.

In an open letter due to be published this week, 239 scientists from 32 countries call for greater acknowledgement of the role of airborne spread of Covid-19 and the need for governments to implement control measures.
WHO states that the virus is transmitted primarily between people through respiratory droplets & contact.

Aerosol transmission involves much smaller particles that can remain in the air for long periods of time and can be transmitted to others over distances greater than 1 m.
Read 8 tweets
5 Jul
Many ask me when we will see the peak of #COVID19?

Please understand that I am not an epidemiologist to tell you that. They are the right persons to answer that question.

What I am doing is just scrupulously analysing the past data & making my projections for a max of 3 weeks.
While I make my projections, I look at various variables like our growth rate at various timeliness, the way we increase our testing capabilities, how Govt is controlling data for a short period & many other parameters.. It is not a straight jacket formula but a pragmatic one!
Read 2 tweets
5 Jul
Some people love to be ostriches....

They refuse to see the elephant in the room!

IT cell & Govt's propaganda have limited shell life as far as #COVID19 is concerned.

No one can't keep it under the lid like they had done with #DemonSlayer

Indian jugad will not work here!
Do you have any doubts?

Take the case of Tablighis, which Union & Delhi Govt used as a figleaf to hide their abject failures!

Mesmerising presentations & charming press conferences by Lav Agarwal ;) Lyuten's journalists issued a lookout notice, but he is still missing!
Dr. Paul's graph was a cruel joke on our collective IQ!

Gujarat's Health Secretary's claim on Ayurveda drug trials and it as a magical potion against COVID!

Shamika's daily declarations accompanied by a dozen graphs and statistics!

Modiji too given up his lockdown panacea!
Read 6 tweets
1 Jul
I predicted on June 12 that Delhi will have 90,000 #COVID19 cases as of June 30.

Now Delhi Govt bulletin is released & the number of cases up to June 30 midnight is 89,802.

There are more to Delhi numbers which will discuss soon below this tweet!
Prima facie it looks like my second part of prediction gone wrong.

It is not the reality...it exactly happened like that...

I will expand this thread soon, I am now entangled in some emergency.

Once I am free, I will disclose you some interesting insights about Delhi..;)
Now let's dissect Delhi data..

when I see Delhi data of June 12, the daily TPCC was 2.78 & the way the daily TPCC was worsening made me to predict that Delhi's daily TPCC may hit 2 soon..then there were only PCR tests.

Things get entangled when Delhi started anti-gen testing..
Read 26 tweets
28 Jun
In the study published in medRxiv, a team at the Lindsley F. Kimball Research Institute of the New York Blood Center and Rockefeller University analyzed 370 plasma samples donated from people who recovered from COVID-19 and found some surprising results.
Around 88% of the people generated varying levels of antibodies to the virus.

But only about 10% of them had high levels that were able to neutralize the lab-based version of the COVID-19 virus.

17% had almost no antibody response to their infection.
What that means is so-called “natural immunity” to SARS-CoV-2 may be more complicated than the idea that everyone infected with COVID-19 is robustly protected from getting the disease again, says Dr. Larry Luchsinger.
Read 10 tweets
27 Jun
India's #COVID19 trajectory

1 to 1 lakh cases: 139 days
1 lakh to 2 lakh cases: 16 days
2 lakh to 3 lakh cases: 11 days
3 lakh to 4 lakh cases: 9 days
4 lakh to 5 lakh cases: 7 days

Graph plotted with our lockdown and unlock dates & infection data
If someone is saying that our doubling rate is reduced, please don't fall for such arguments, which is nothing but trying to avoid the elephant in the room.

Look at this graph to know how our average weekly infection rates are changing..

The steepness of the curve is worrying!
Also let that sink in as we increase the number of tests, the tests per confirmed cases (TPCC) is also falling, not even getting constant...it is falling as days pass!

Means as we test more and we find MORE CASES & we yet to cover the infected zones fully.

Read 3 tweets
26 Jun
Delhi has not revealed if it is testing those who turned up negative using RAPID ANTIGEN TESTING as required by ICMR.

This will create a false sense of security in those who tested negative as they could be false negatives. 

ICMR advisory asserts at least twice that suspected individuals who test -VE for COVID-19 by rapid antigen test should be definitely tested sequentially by RT-PCR to rule out infection, whereas a +VE test should be considered as a true +VE doesn't need reconfirmation by RT-PCR
Delhi released the data of how many antigen tests were done and out of that how many people got positive from those tests for June 18 & 19.

But thereafter, they have not released any separate data about Antigen tests, but all data as pooled and as a single data.
Read 29 tweets
25 Jun
UP Government is not providing any info in their redundant website but UP Government issues regular bulletins through WhatsApp to the journalists there.

But each district issues detailed bulletins in their website but to collate 75 districts data is really a tedious process!
This is one sample bulletin UP issues regularly to the jouralists there.

I appreciate the fact that they provide the information in a detailed manner w/o any changes from day one.

I used to regularly collect this data from one good friend there.
Many Governments are reluctant to share the information on their website.

Hope you remember how Delhi Govt evaded this for quite long time and I used to called out them regularly.

After High Court intervention only they started updating the data.
Read 5 tweets
23 Jun
As coronavirus chaos has enveloped Pakistan, with hospitals overflowing, doctors dying and infections escalating at an unmanageable rate, a dangerous black market in blood plasma has emerged.

Doctors said that hospitals in Islamabad had also run out of vital drugs, such as dexamethasone which was recently proven to help in Covid-19 recovery, as well oxygen cylinders, because they had been stolen and were now being sold for 25 times the market price on the black market
Pakistan now has one of the fastest infection rates in the world, with 185,000 confirmed cases and upwards of 5,000 new infections a day. The planning minister, Asad Umar, has said cases could multiply eightfold by the end of July and hit 1.2 million.
Read 8 tweets
22 Jun
Oil companies are not updating the price build up after 16th June, though they enhanced the price on a daily basis.

If we look at this data, pertaining to Delhi petrol price, you are paying Rs.50.70 as Central & State taxes for a base price of Rs.22.47

Paying a tax of 226%!!!!
This is one sector where there is no regulatory framework exists!

Both public sector & private sector oil companies along with the Petroleum Ministry acting like a cartel...

If you can have regulators for electricity and telecom, why not here?
There was a time when UPA-2 was shedding around Rs 1.5 lakh crores per year as oil subsidies to cushion the global crude oil prices, it was not sustainable.

We travelled a lot, now Petrol tax is a big revenue generator for Modi regime. They use it to fill the deficit holes!
Read 5 tweets
22 Jun
Sitting in Hyderabad, the Deccan Chronicle journalist paints a crystal-clear picture of what happened in the heights of Ladakh, courtesy “inputs” from “multiple sources”.

And, at 12.27 pm on Sunday, June 21, Asian News International, the video news agency to which Narendra Modi has given the most number of “interviews” since coming to office, tweeted its version.
And at 4.34 pm, India Today’s Shiv Aroor reported that there were three skirmishes in Galwan Valley on the evening of June 15, with 16 Chinese fatalities.
Read 11 tweets
17 Jun
Nope, this is totally misleading and false.

Petrol's base price is Rs. 22.44/-
Excise duty charged by Centre is Rs.32.98/-
Dealer Commission (Average) is Rs. 3.60
State VAT differs among States

In case of Kerala
30.08% Salea Tax + 1Rs. Additional tax + 1% flood cess = Rs.19.34
This is the break up of Petrol price by Indian Oil Corporation for DELHI from their website.

In case of Kerala, the freight charge & Dealer Commission may vary.
From this table, which is being published by PPAC under Union Petroleum Ministry you can compare different State's VAT on Petrol and Diesel.

Zoom and See or go to their website and download the Excel file.
Read 15 tweets
14 Jun
Delhi moving into a red zone: Every third person tested is COVID-19 positive

Trends suggest that soon every second person who would be tested would be positive for COVID-19.

On June 13, it took only 2.71 teststo find one Coronavirus positive case. This means there is at least 37% positivity in Delhi, i.e. more than one-third of the people who are being tested are COVID-19 positive.
This increase in positivity is a worrying trend. When we compute the positivity for a month (May 14 to June 13), it took 5.36 cases to find one positive case and the cumulative figure from when the cases began in Delhi, it is 7.3.
Read 25 tweets
5 Jun
As each day is setting a new record of #COVID19 daily cases in India, yesterday we recorded 9851 positive cases.

Look at this trajectory of daily cases shooting up in 3rd degree polynomial curve.
As the confirmed cases now touched 2,26,770 cases, please have a look at trajectory of our confirmed cases

WHO website shows the countries showing largest last 7 days confirmed cases and we are now at number 4 position there.
Read 4 tweets
31 May
Many here asked what worries me most about India's #COVID19 trajectory based on tests data

Answer is look at the number of tests needed to confirm a positive case, call it TPCC (Tests Per Confirmed Cases).

TPCC not increases as testing increases instead it decreases!

I have discussed about this concept in my latest blog post. The link to my blog post is available in bio.

For the ones, who do not have the patience to read, let me give you the screenshot of the relevant part
Now, let us look at the data as on 1st April

India done 42778 tests and identified 1642 positive cases, ie, a meagre 32 tests per million population.

The TPCC then was 26, means each 26 tests done were identified one positive #COVID19 case.
Read 8 tweets