Thread by @karamballes

What happened to the gov's #fivetests?
What happened to contact tracing?
Has the gov completely abandoned the science and it's own rules due to its inability to meet it's own targets?

Looking at SAGE papers we are in serious risk of going straight into a second peak

Let's look

1. NHS capacity, we have the Nightingale wards, bed capacity is there, but

Do we have the staff for large patient numbers in Nightingales?
What are our ventilator numbers like?

2. Sustained fall in cases
Gov claims less ppl are testing positive, however for 3 days theyve stopped saying how many people are tested
Looking at figures only around 40k at most were tested,it appears cases in the community have started to rise
25th May vs 20th May

Test 2. So deaths are falling but if cases have started rising then it will be a couple of weeks before this impacts the death figures and they start to rise.

Heres a quick look I took at the testing figures and number of cases,heading in wrong direction?

https://twitter.com/karamballes/status/1264982450683461633?s=19

Test 3: rate of infection down across the board
RO estimated around 0.7-1.0
Notice Johnson said yesterday RO is not above 1,is this an attempt to change terms of test 3?
RO is not down across the board with a hospital shutting to new patients yesterday.Testing enough to know RO?

They solved the increased demand for PPE with education settings inceasing student numbers by just saying that there is no need for PPE.

Do other sectors like NHS and care homes have enough PPE now?

Dont know as the media have dropped that ball from the agenda

So Test 4: Operational measures like testing and PPE in place

PPE? I dont know on that one, supply lines might all be in place

Testing? Johnson promised 200k test daily within 6 days, for past 3 days gov wont even tell us how many people have been tested

Despite Hancocks target and all the fanfare around the end of April, Gov has never tested 100k ppl on ANY day and they have played many games to inflate the figures
Counting swabs posted not tested
Counting lab tests that dont diagnose ppl, 30k in one day

Then theres the fact they are counting one persons throat and nose swab as two seperate tests. Many of these are coming back as inconclusive, they are still counted towards the figures.
The numbers on testing are actually heading in the wrong direction

Test 5: the most important test according to gov, to prevent a second peak, however they already changed the terms to 'not overwhelming the NHS' so I guess that means until the Nightingale wards are full? However not all areas like WSM have Nightingales

What have the SAGE papers released said about this?
Effective contact tracing must be well established before lockdown measures are eased
We clearly dont have the testing capability in place, do we have evidence Serco will have their contact tracers in place within 6 days?

And what about the app? Remember originally this was going to be the vital piece of the testing puzzle, but now the timetable has been pushed back its importance is being downplayed.
SAGE said easing lockdown without contact tracing has a very real risk of causing a second peak

SAGE also said easing lockdown without causing a second peak was conditional on maintaining a high level of adherence to social distancing.
VE day, street parties, parks and beaches?
How has social distancing been working in the past few days in general.

Yet despite the 2 most important conditions to prevent a second peak according to SAGE not being met, Johnson has confidently said that everything is fine to start increasing student numbers in 6 days time?
What is he basing this massive assumption on?

SAGE had many concerns on schools pushing RO above 1 and triggering a second peak, the conditions they required to do this safely have not been met, infact the gov guidence goes directly against the SAGE recommendations

Full breakdown of the science here

https://twitter.com/karamballes/status/1264594289318866944?s=19

Final decision date for schools was supposed to be 28th May when they would check their #fivetests, however they already seem to have made the decision without meeting their own tests, they are going to fudge the stats or just bin their own tests to carry on regardless

If the government had got its act together over testing and other measures months ago we could have pushed infections right down, if it also properly engaged with unions and had the same school measures as Denmark or any other countries we be looking at a safe sensible increase..

of student numbers and other easings of lockdown next week. Unfortunately the gov hasn't done its job properly and this feels much like an inverse of the start of March, pure short sighted focus on immediate economics without considering the long term consequences.

in student numbers.
They have failed but because they cant admit this they are going to make similar poor judgement calls that led to a late lockdown.

Prediction: they will obscure cases starting to rise, and will hope to have basically adopted the Swedish system by July

Due to lag between infection and symptoms presenting, a testing system not capable of tracking this, the second peak will be underway before we notice, the gov will downplay this trying to avoid another lockdown, by the time we reach the school summer holidays it will be too late

Consider how infections and deaths moved from Feb to April, so maybe August for the second peak to be hitting?We could be back to square 1 by September,back to lockdown, more economic damage and a proper return to school for most pupils looking unlikely
They will resist lockdown

Rather than a well planned orderly easing of lockdown following the science we are going to get a rushed, reckless and poorly planned exit into a second peak other countries will avoid.
All cos they were more concerned with PR and short termism
120k excess deaths by Oct?