Thread by @chrisvanderveen

I'm listening in on @CDPHE call taking place right now...

Will try to put news coming from it in this thread below...

#COVID19colorado

Interesting to note Dr. Jonathan Samet on the call to talk about modeling.

"We have done a good job of flattening the curve... but we are not out of the woods," says Jill Hunsaker Ryan, Executive Director CDPHE

Jill Ryan says Colorado goals:

1.) Don't exceed hospital capacity
2.) Get kids back to school in the fall
3.) Avoid having to return to Stay at Home

Here is slide up now

Note last line on businesses

CDPHE estimates 170,000 Coloradans have had COVID-19 (less than 3% of population)

Here is a slide on how many hours we've been staying at home

We've talked a lot about R0

(You want it below one)

Colorado, according to Dr. Samet, reached an R0 of below 1 in early May

Ok... here comes some news

Dr. Samet's modeling says any scenario where we go below 65% social distancing as a whole (where we are now)

WILL result in overrun of ICU bed space in late summer/early fall

This is critical

(don't shoot the messenger here folks)

Basically (and I'm going to ask about this) is that it appears this phase we are in now is likely to last a long time should @GovofCO listen closely to this modeling.

Good question by @JenBrownColo on difference between 45% and 65% social distancing figures

(not sure she's getting a great answer to it tho)

I just asked question about the modeling suggesting in large part Colorado will continue to look very, very different for the rest of the year...

"We are in this for the long haul" says Jill Ryan, but acknowledges state will continue to reevaluate month to month.

It is impossible to listen to this and not conclude that if this modeling is, in essence, the Bible for the state in determining how much to reopen...

...what we see in June is NOT likely to change for many, many months

(this has impacts for students, sports fans, bar patrons)

I'll end this thread for now with this...

You may quibble with Dr. Samet's modeling... but ever since I've been looking at them his models have suggested BIG difference between 55% and 65% social distancing. (We will be at 65% tomorrow)

(look below)

What are we to conclude with this?

The modeling being used right now to help @GovofCO how to reopen suggests that he should go not much further than he is going tomorrow (restaurants reopening at 50% capacity)

In other words... be prepared for continued disruption for months

This has MAJOR implications for sporting events... conventions... tourism...

If the Governor is going to open those back up in any meaningful way, he's going to have to go AGAINST the modeling done on his behalf.

Can't stress this enough...