Not sure the @IEA has got this energy investment report today entirely right iea.org/reports/world-…
Well - to clarify, I'm sure the figures will be right, and the near-term projections as reliable as anyone else's that hinge on the myriad unknowns of #COVID__19, but the interpretation is a different matter
One point that it seems to downplay is that energy investment has fallen for different reasons. For renewables, it's almost entirely disruption to the building process and supply chain - ie, temporary, with rebound inevitable
...while with fossil fuels, it's a more profound mix of lower demand, lack of faith in demand coming back, over-abundant supplies, uncertain geopolitical factors, etc. So, rebound not guaranteed
Second, post-Covid, where are investors going to want to put their money? Into sectors where demand and returns are relatively guaranteed, such as wind, solar and storage, or into oil, gas and coal? Some may take risks but you can be certain many will not
Thirdly, though the @IEA references public opinion, it doesn't treat it as significant. Given anger towards elites who haven't suffered as most have, given emerging evidence linking air pollution to the spread and severity of #coronavirus, this hardly seems credible
Finally there's the likely non-linear response of fossil fuel companies, and governments with substantial fossil fuel interests. For them the #COVID__19 question isn't whether it eats into the business model a bit, but whether it's the final push into a deliberate transformation
We're into a realm where far more is unknown than known, so not blaming @IEA here. Just think post-#Covid is a place where forecasting-as-usual won't prove particularly reliable, and everyone in the game should probably acknowledge that
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