Thread by @DFBeanCounter

I have noticed that my WR rankings vary quite a lot from that of other data analysts and I think it is because I put a different emphasis on draft capital when looking at prospects.

(thread)

I still want day 1 and 2 picks, but if a player is drafted on day 1 or 2 but doesnt have the rest of the profile to go with it I still basically remove them from my draft board.

Lets take a look at why.

Lets limit it to round 1 and 2 for simplicity and look at nothing beyond market share of receiving yards. We will go through every WR back to 2010.

Keep in mind, this is about spotting busts, not hits.

This is going to be very long. Sorry. 😂🤣

Generally speaking when it comes to production I like to see consistent domination and an 18 or 19 breakout.

Alternatively the other profile that I am interested in is players that didnt play at 18 or 19 but dominated as soon as they got on the field

Round 1, pick 22 - Demaryius Thomas

Yup.

Round 1, Pick 24 - Dez Bryant

Yup.

Round 2, pick 39 - Arrelious Benn

Yup.

Round 2, pick 60 - Golden Tate

Kind of yup. Two good seasons, but not until age 20.

2011

Round 1, pick 4 - AJ Green

Yup

Round 1, pick 6 - Julio Jones

Yup

Round 1, pick 26 - Jonathan Baldwin

Yup.

Round 2, pick 44 - Titus Young

Yup.

Round 2, pick 58 - Torrey Smith

Kind of yup. Two good seasons, but not until age 20.

Round 2, pick 59 - Greg Little

Nope.

His fantasy finishes in ppg:

55
63
96
139

Round 2, pick 64 - Randall Cobb

Yup.

2012

Round 1, pick 5 - Justin Blackmon

Kind of yup. Two good seasons, but not until age 20.

Round 1, pick 13 - Michael Floyd

Yup.

Also it should be noted I strongly prefer early declares, but that's a story for another day.

Round 1, pick 20 - Kendall Wright

Yup.

But he's another senior.

Round 1, pick 30 - AJ Jenkins

Nope, two years below is not good.

Also floundered for first two years.

Also a senior.

Fantasy ppg finishes:

134
138

Round 2, pick 33 - Brian Quick

Meh. Senior, no age 18 or 19 and didnt dominate from day 1.

Round 2, pick 43 - Stephen Hill

Yup.

Round 2, pick 45 - Alshon Jeffery

Yup.

Round 2, pick 54 - Ryan Broyles

So much nope. Senior, two years below, super old prospect.

Fantasy ppg finishes:

70
140

Round 2, pick 63 - Rueben Randle

Yup.

2013

Round 1, pick 8 - Tavon Austin

Yup.

Round 1, pick 27 - DeAndre Hopkins

Yup.

Round 1, pick 29 - Cordarelle Patterson

Nope.

Fantasy ppg finishes:

WR53
95
168
79
101
108
143

Round 2, pick 34 - Justin Hunter

Nope.

Fantasy ppg finishes:

WR99
72
93
97
163

Round 2, pick 41 - Robert Woods

Yup.

Round 2, pick 59 - Aaron Dobson

Nope.

Fantasy ppg finishes:

WR58
114

2014

Round 1, pick 4 - Sammy Watkins

Yup.

Round 1, pick 7 - Mike Evans

Yup.

Round 1, pick 12 - Odell Beckham

Yup.

Round 1, pick 20 - Brandin Cooks

Yup.

Round 1, pick 28 - Kelvin Benjamin

Nope.

Fantasty PPG finishes:

18
38
55
128

Round 2, pick 39 - Marqise Lee

Yup.

Round 2, pick 42 - Jordan Matthews

Yup. But senior

Round 2, pick 45 - Paul Richardson

Yup. But senior.

Round 2, pick 53 - Davante Adams

Yup.

Round 2, pick 56 - Cody Latimer

Close.

Fantasy ppg finishes:

WR151
150
98
107
112

Round 2, pick 61 - Allen Robinson

Yup.

Round 2, pick 63 - Jarvis Landry

On his own, kind of scary. But when you factor in he played with Odell Beckham fairly impressive. I am afraid I am not as familiar with some of the older players but if they also played with a superstar feel free to bump them up.

2015

Round 1, pick 4 - Amari Cooper

Yup.

Round 1, pick 7 - Kevin White

Nope.

Fantasy ppg finishes:

WR62

Round 1, pick 14 - DeVante Parker

Nope.

Fantasy ppg finishes:

WR52
55
46
112
15👀

Round 1, pick 20 - Nelson Agholor

Nope. No 18 or 19 and did not dominate from day 1.

Fantasy ppg finishes:

WR126
98
29
55
68

Round 1, pick 26 - Breshad Perriman

Really close to the Jarvis Landry and Cody Latimer production profiles.

Could go either way. He played with nobody of consequence similar to Latimer so I'd go no, but you can make your own decision.

Fantasy ppg finishes:

WR84
153
102
59

Round 1, pick 29 - Phillip Dorsett

Nope.

Fantasy ppg finishes:

WR120
86
128
78
65

Round 2, pick 37 - Devin Smith

Nope.

Fantasy ppg finishes:

WR137

Round 2, pick 40 - Dorial Green-Beckham

Nope.

Fantasy ppg finishes:

WR70
91

2016

Round 1, pick 15 - Corey Coleman

Nope.

Fantasy ppg finishes:

WR64
76
159

Round 1, pick 21 - Will Fuller

Kind of yup. Two good seasons, but not until age 20

Round 1, pick 22 - Josh Doctson

Nope.

Fantasy ppg finishes:

WR66
86

Round 1, pick 23 - Laquon Treadwell

Nope.

Fantasy ppg finishes:

WR138
125
137

Round 2, pick - 40 - Sterling Shepard

Yup. But senior.

Round 2, pick 47 - Michael Thomas

NOPE.

Here is your outlier ladies and gentlemen....

Fantasy ppg finishes:

WR8
5
6
1

🎆🎇🎆🎇🎆🎇

Round 2, pick 55 - Tyler Boyd

Yup.

2017

Round 1, pick 5 - Corey Davis

Yup, but senior.

Round 1, pick 7 - Mike Williams

Nope.

Fantasy ppg finishes:

WR142
44
47

Round 1, pick 9 - John Ross

Nope.

WR98
40

Round 2, pick 37 - Zay Jones

Nope. Senior that didnt breakout until age 20 while floundering for two years.

Fantasy PPG finishes:

106
51
135

Round 2, pick 40 - Curtis Samuel

Yup.

Round 2, pick 62 - Juju Smith-Schuster

Yup.

2018

Round 1, pick 24 - DJ Moore

Yup.

Round 1, pick 26 - Calvin Ridley

Yup, dominated from day 1.

Round 2, pick 40 - Courtland Sutton

Yup. Senior though.

Round 2, pick 44 - Dante Pettis

Nope.

Fantasy ppg finishes:

WR70
WR129

Round 2, pick 47 - Christian Kirk

Yup.

Round 2, pick 51 - Anthony Miller

Nope. No production until age 21 and failed in his first year at age 20.

Round 2, pick 60 - James Washington

Yup, but senior.

Round 2, pick 61 - DJ Chark

Could go either way, I went with no because Malachi Dupree is a long ways off of Odell Beckham if you recall the Jarvis Landry graph?

2019

Round 1, pick 25 - Marquise Brown

Nope.

Fantasy ppg finishes:

WR50

Round 1, pick 32 - N'Keal Harry

Yup.

Round 2, pick 36 - Deebo Samuel

Nope.

Fantasy ppg finishes:

WR33

Round 2, pick 51 - AJ Brown

Kind of yup. Two good seasons, but not until age 20.

Round 2, pick 56 - Mecole Hardman

Nope.

Fantasy ppg finishes:

WR75

Round 2, pick 57 - JJ Arcega Whiteside

Kind of yup. Two good seasons, but not until age 20.

Round 2, pick 59 - Parris Campbell

Nope.

Fantasy ppg finishes:

WR103

Round 2, pick 62 - Andy Isabella

Yup, senior though.

Round 2, pick 64 - DK Metcalf

Nope.

Fantasy ppg finshes:

WR41

Production profiles are one aspect of what I look at, not everything that I look at, but nearly everyone that failed at dominating their teams passing attack early and often in college flamed out despite top 2 round draft capital.

You will also notice that there were also a lot of productive college players busted, that is why production alone doesnt matter, just like draft capital alone doesnt matter.

It would seem that I am substantially lower than even the data analysts on guys such as Brandon Aiyuk, Michael Pittman, Henry Ruggs, etc.

This is very much the type of thing that I look at when doing my dynasty and rookie rankings on patreon.