Sufficient data worldwide now exists to conclude that, to date, the UK has the highest rate of excess deaths in the Coronavirus pandemic in the world

Free to read article with @jburnmurdoch

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ft.com/content/6b4c78…
The UK has suffered 60,000 excess deaths, directly or indirectly linked to Coronavirus, according to official figures.

Only the much larger US has had more.
UK has had the highest global excess death rate (per million)
And only Peru has had a higher increase in deaths

2/ ImageImage
We can say this now because there are few new excess deaths across Europe and high quality data has now been published.

The US will have a much higher absolute number but its per capita rate is far lower.

Peru has had dengue fever this year and is earlier in its outbreak

3/
There are some other countries with little data published - Brazil, Russia, China - these have large populations and unlikely to have death rates per million close to the UK

4/ Image
Excess deaths is the measure Boris Johnson and Chris Whitty have championed for comparison

Correctly, they say it is not subject to the measurement and testing problems of other comparisons

UK rate is highest for pensioners and non pensioners. Age adjustment is a red herring

5 Image
Number 10 said yesterday it was too early to do any comparisons. We disagree

6/ Image
The reason for the UK being at the bottom of the table appears to be twofold.

First, the epidemic spread across all nations and regions of the UK with excess deaths everywhere

7/ Image
This is not true in Italy and France, for example, where there were definitive hotspots of public health systems being overwhelmed and other areas with lower than normal death rates.

8/ ImageImage
Second, the point of lockdown appears strongly linked to eventual excess deaths.

Here, we show the relationship between an estimate of infections on lockdown day and eventual excess deaths

9/ Image
As many experts say, the UK was late to lockdown and that cost many lives

10/ Image
Number 10 has complained that we are jumping the gun with this international comparison and it should determine timing.

One statistician who was sympathetic @d_spiegel to the problems of comparisons says this after seeing the FT analysis

ENDS Image
@d_spiegel Following helpful suggestions here on Twitter and elsewhere, we have changed our correlation chart to report on a per capita basis.

This removes an element of tautology in the original version, which we regret. It does not change the story. Image

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More from @ChrisGiles_

21 Oct
This is the current outlook and reason Pill thinks November meeting is “live”.

He urged markets not to get too excited by timing but says there’s a “regime change” in policy

It’s no longer boring with the question being how much stimulus to provide
Big picture is we don’t need emergent low interest rates any more
Fully recognises some of this will be controversial.
Read 7 tweets
15 Oct
🚨🚨Nerd alert:

Sunak has told his independent* fiscal watchdog to use out of date data for the Budget forecast

It’ll guarantee a big upgrade in level of UK output in next year’s Budget, just in time for the election

*doesn’t feel so independent today on.ft.com/3lJQa6w
I was musing about this yesterday, thinking the @OBR_UK was being weirdly secretive in response to a purely factual question.

Well, they came clean today, but it just looks worse not better
Both the OBR and @hmtreasury said this was standard and was done in 2015, the last time there was a multi-year spending review.

I think they expected me not to check

In 2015, OBR closed the forecast 2.5 weeks before announcement. It was 5 weeks this year
Read 7 tweets
12 Oct
It's quite something that @RishiSunak keeps highlighting the IMF forecasts for the UK

They literally show the UK will be hardest hit by the pandemic in the G7

1/
@RishiSunak So, why does Sunak keep highlighting the 2021 forecast in isolation?

Well - I'd love to know...

2/
@RishiSunak Many economists in the UK think the @IMFNews is too pessimistic in its assessment of the UK economy and the pandemic.

I share that feeling that the IMF is wrong on this.

But at least I know what it is actually saying

ENDS
Read 4 tweets
2 Sep
Good news folks...

As far as I can see, the Treasury has a strong fiscal hand to play this autumn (clearly, it doesn't like this being written, tho, because that just adds to requests from spending departments)

Mt column
ft.com/content/80aa42…
The point is that some of the requests for more money - education catch-up, health waiting lists, couts backlogs, rail subsidies while people WFH are temporary. These can be funded in 2022-23 and beyond credibly temporarily without undermining the UK's fiscal position
Then we have the OBR's coming review of Covid economic scarring - this is potentially a game changer for the medium-term fiscal outlook.

No, it shouldn't be done behind closed doors at the OBR, and no, we don't really have any idea what the right number is, but...
Read 7 tweets
1 Sep
Bank of England chief economist appointment

"What does Huw Pill think?" is, ultimately, the most important question. This is my best go at a quick answer

New BoE chief economist backs limits on quantitative easing ft.com/content/63237e…
It clearly borrows heavily from this @NIESRorg book, to which Pill contributed a chapter

niesr.ac.uk/sites/default/…
Other legitimate questions on the appointment exist - such as the prevalence of former Goldman Sachs bankers...



Or whether it fits with the governor's recent insistence on the importance of diversity

theguardian.com/business/2021/…
Read 4 tweets
21 May
Seeking help with my opinion on central banks' "greening" their corporate bond buying

My prior is that this is style over substance - these have been reinforced by the @bankofengland output today

But am I wrong? - I'll lay out my thoughts below. Seeking challenge
Best place to see @bankofengland view is today's speech by Andrew Hauser bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/fi…

I don't find it convincing - why?

1) It's terribly fashionable in central banking to be seen to be green. This is a red flag for me because this isn't the role of central banks
2) Hauser at no stage attempts to quantify the effect of BoE bond buying on the environment. Let's be clear, he would if he could. So, it's irrelevant to the issue

3) The BoE has resorted to the use of rubbish infographics - it always does this when it's got nothing to say
Read 6 tweets

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