Thread by @ChrisGiles_

🚨🚨Nerd alert:

Sunak has told his independent* fiscal watchdog to use out of date data for the Budget forecast

It’ll guarantee a big upgrade in level of UK output in next year’s Budget, just in time for the election

*doesn’t feel so independent today on.ft.com/3lJQa6w

I was musing about this yesterday, thinking the @OBR_UK was being weirdly secretive in response to a purely factual question.

Well, they came clean today, but it just looks worse not better

https://twitter.com/chrisgiles_/status/1448694807816200193

Both the OBR and @hmtreasury said this was standard and was done in 2015, the last time there was a multi-year spending review.

I think they expected me not to check

In 2015, OBR closed the forecast 2.5 weeks before announcement. It was 5 weeks this year

All done privately in negotiations between OBR and HMT over the summer, when we already knew the revisions would be material ons.gov.uk/economy/nation…

The important question is why was the OBR willing to endanger its institutional credibility and why did the chancellor insist, putting an independent body in a very difficult position

It certainly makes the immediate forecast worse - helping HMT say to departments “no no no there’s no money around”

The upgrade to the level of output next year will probably allow chancellor to collect a windfall and showed us with goodies, closer to an election

Of course, both OBR and HMT deny this was the motive. Just an operational decision….

ENDS