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Chris Giles Profile picture
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1 Sep, 4 tweets, 2 min read
Bank of England chief economist appointment

"What does Huw Pill think?" is, ultimately, the most important question. This is my best go at a quick answer

New BoE chief economist backs limits on quantitative easing ft.com/content/63237e…
It clearly borrows heavily from this @NIESRorg book, to which Pill contributed a chapter

niesr.ac.uk/sites/default/…
Other legitimate questions on the appointment exist - such as the prevalence of former Goldman Sachs bankers...



Or whether it fits with the governor's recent insistence on the importance of diversity

theguardian.com/business/2021/…
But those who know Huw well, say he was not an archetypal Goldman Sachs person, was extremely considerate to junior staff and was generally pretty hawkish

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More from @ChrisGiles_

Chris Giles Profile picture
2 Sep
Good news folks...

As far as I can see, the Treasury has a strong fiscal hand to play this autumn (clearly, it doesn't like this being written, tho, because that just adds to requests from spending departments)

Mt column
ft.com/content/80aa42…
The point is that some of the requests for more money - education catch-up, health waiting lists, couts backlogs, rail subsidies while people WFH are temporary. These can be funded in 2022-23 and beyond credibly temporarily without undermining the UK's fiscal position
Then we have the OBR's coming review of Covid economic scarring - this is potentially a game changer for the medium-term fiscal outlook.

No, it shouldn't be done behind closed doors at the OBR, and no, we don't really have any idea what the right number is, but...
Read 7 tweets
Chris Giles Profile picture
21 May
Seeking help with my opinion on central banks' "greening" their corporate bond buying

My prior is that this is style over substance - these have been reinforced by the @bankofengland output today

But am I wrong? - I'll lay out my thoughts below. Seeking challenge
Best place to see @bankofengland view is today's speech by Andrew Hauser bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/fi…

I don't find it convincing - why?

1) It's terribly fashionable in central banking to be seen to be green. This is a red flag for me because this isn't the role of central banks
2) Hauser at no stage attempts to quantify the effect of BoE bond buying on the environment. Let's be clear, he would if he could. So, it's irrelevant to the issue

3) The BoE has resorted to the use of rubbish infographics - it always does this when it's got nothing to say
Read 6 tweets
Chris Giles Profile picture
21 May
Compared with the forecasts in the March Budget, the latest data and forecasts suggests Sunak will be rolling in it come the Autumn

- but HMT is concerned that it will face pressure (not least from No 10) to squander the cash
ft.com/content/52adf0… via @financialtimes
@FinancialTimes The good news is down to 3 things

1. The Office for Budget Responsibility's 2020-21 forecast in March was nearly £35bn too pessimitic even as the financial year closed
@FinancialTimes 2. Economic forecasts are shooting up as data comes in far better than expected (eg today's retail sales

ft.com/content/a1ee29…

Even as the Budget speech was given, we now know the economy was only 6.2% below the pre-pandemic level not 10% as the OBR said
Read 5 tweets
Chris Giles Profile picture
11 May
BoE upgraded forecasts disguise a much more gloomy assessment for economy - the central bank revised down the growth forecast for future quarters, only increasing the assessment of the past ft.com/content/1e328f… via @financialtimes
@FinancialTimes Safe to say this was not the impression given by governor Andrew Bailey last week or the message received by him, but these are the forecast changes

They lend weight to Andy Haldane's argument that growth might well be stronger
@FinancialTimes Certainly, spending growth has not been slowing down because growth was better than feared in the third lockdown
Read 4 tweets
Chris Giles Profile picture
7 Apr
Scoop with ⁦@JamesPoliti⁩ and ⁦@Aime_Williams⁩

The US really wants to make its global minimum corporate tax plan work and has just made a big concession to other countries in a bid to sue for peace internationally on.ft.com/3cVVWgS
If others roll back their digital taxes, US has recognised for the first time they should have the right to a slice of revenues from the likes of Google, Apple, Facebook, Amazon etc based on sales in their jurisdictions
The suggestion is that apportionment rules should apply to all the sales on just the largest and most profitable multinationals globally. The results would be similar to those proposed by the OECD, but without specifically targeting digital companies (although they all be caught)
Read 4 tweets
Chris Giles Profile picture
3 Apr
This is the story of the rising price of identity politics. It’s not about the viability of an independent Scotland.

Obviously it’s viable, if people want to pay (like Brexit) but the price has gone up

Why?

1/ on.ft.com/2OmVYFi
The chart shows the moving parts
- oil (worth next to nothing now)
- worsening Scottish revenues
- no longer any U.K. fiscal consolidation planned, so Scotland can’t assume the U.K. will do it’s fiscal dirty work for it any more

2/
Since the SNP commissioned 2018 sustainable growth commission, the fiscal gap needed to be filled has doubled from 2.9% of GDP to 5.7%

Note: this uses all of the SNP’s standard assumptions, which would be challenged by London in independence negotiations

3/
Read 7 tweets

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