There is a concern that New START will not be extended & ends in Feb 2021. However, little was written about what happens next. I co-authored a paper with @orlov_pircenter, @evgbujin, @semenovSD on just that from the Russian point of view pircenter.org/en/articles/22… Thread 1/12
First of all, I have to say that extending NST would be the best option, but we might not have this luxury, so what next? There are basically two scenarios 2/12
US admin might not be interested in any agreements or limitations at all. That will limit Moscow’s options. We argue that in this case Russia should still take part in the remaining nuclear threat reduction mechanisms 3/12
Russia should also state that it wouldn’t increase its strategic nuclear forces unless the US does it first. There will be no data exchanges 4/12
Moscow should preserve the infrastructure (NNRRC & beyond) required for a swift return to negotiations and rapid implementation of any new deal in case the mood in DC changes 5/12
The second scenario is more optimistic. US might not want to have any formal arms control arrangements but could be willing to preserve the status quo by means of political commitments. We argue that those would serve Russia’s interests 6/12
In this case Russia and the US should make a joint statement that they will not increase their strategic arsenals beyond the NST ceilings, information exchange could continue (it looks feasible legally) 7/12
Russia and the US could also agree not to impede each other’s NTMs, which could help with some verification 8/12
Keeping inspections regime would be the most ambitious goal, but it wouldn’t be impossible, there is a precedent of inspections under the politically binding agreement – OSCE Vienna Document 9/12
To formalize all of this Russia & the US would have to sign a political agreement, it could be for indefinite term and remain in effect until the entry into force of the next strategic arms control treaty 10/12
To discuss the technical issues (information exchange, NTMs, inspections, etc.) the two parties would need to establish a standing body similar to the New START BCC 11/12
Check out the paper for additional details: pircenter.org/en/articles/22… I’m aware of some of the issues with the numbers about strategic forces we provide & we are working to fix those, but please feel free to address me with any criticism you have :) 12/12
