I’ve seen people arguing that after Suleimani’s assassination Iran will clandestinely build nuclear weapons to deter US. While Iran might at some point decide that getting nuclear weapons is necessary for state survival, I don’t think this episode will be decisive one. Thread 1/x
First, just to put it out there - it’s quite hard to have clandestine nuclear program when the whole world is actively watching. Iran has just reconfirmed its commitment to IAEA additional protocol + additional JCPOA scrutiny including natural uranium & centrifuge production 2/x
On the deterrence side - nuclear weapons do deter but not from the kind of economic warfare US is waging on Iran, see DPRK example - not even nuclear ICBM persuaded US to lift sanctions, so we would be in the current situation irrespectively 3/x
Would Soleimani’s situation play out differently had Iran had nuclear weapons? Not sure. On one hand previous US administrations decided against killing even with no Iranian nukes just b/c cost/benefit. On the other, Iran wouldn’t respond with nukes to his killing anyway 4/x
Would Iran be in a better position to respond to Suleimani’s killing with nuclear weapons? Well, first of all, Iran already effectively deterred US from responding to shelling of its base b/c US didn’t want even conventional escalation 5/x
But could Iran have a stronger response? Actively trying to kill US soldier in the region? Again not sure. We know that NWS can exchange conventional strikes (China-USSR, India-Pakistan) as long as conflict is localized & doesn’t threaten core interests 6/x
Even nuclear-armed Iran would have to calculate the possibility of conventional counter strike from US & would probably decide for open proportional response & additional retaliation through proxies/special opps 7/x
So, going nuclear would not save Iran from economic pressure & probably wouldn’t shield its military acting undercover in the third countries. When you add the danger you invite by trying to build nuclear weapons the costs probably outweigh benefits 8/8
