In case you missed it, I published "Whales and Retail" as part of the Kana and Katana monthly update. This novel approach suggests that whales are more likely to be trend following, while retailers tend to be value investors.…
The approach uses network data and exchange flows to segment different market participants into "whales" and "retailers." Using Wyckoff we can make some guesses about how these two groups attempt to make the best of each other. Image
Another interesting observation is that market bottoms tend to happen near the "bottoming signature" which is what happens when both whales and retail accumulate #bitcoin at the same time, causing a supply shortage on exchanges where price discovery happens.
Last but not least, Adjusted Binary BDD shows that we are clearly in a heavy accumulation period. Couple this with the recent halving and you've got fireworks. HODL on my friends. Let Bitcoin do the heavy lifting. Image

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More from @hansthered

9 Nov 20
The amount of #Bitcoin on exchanges has fallen dramatically this year.

At the same time M2 is growing like a weed.

Bitcoin miners and their mining pools (1 hop and 0 hop essentially) still have a lot of supply. But as you can see, the long-term trend is downward for their stockpile.

Read 5 tweets
17 Oct 20
This is the best article I've read in... I don't know how long. But I understand your time is limited so here are the CliffNotes. And of course, we're talking #Bitcoin, Federal Reserve and @JeffSnider_AIP (plus bonus content at the end).

Jeff Snider (Head of Global Research at Alhambra Partners.) is the world's leading expert on the Fed (imho). He's been on the @MacroVoices, published a series called Eurodollar University and a show on YouTube called "Making Sense."

In this article he argues that "Decentralized Money Is the Future." Going back to the invention of the printing press, it was decentralizing knowledge in an accurate way that created a tidal wave of change across the world, long before the information superhighway.
Read 18 tweets
15 Oct 20
Interesting comments from @RaoulGMI on #Bitcoin in 2025. I have a few thoughts of my own, too.…
Let's talk about narrative economics. A lot of people think that for #Bitcoin to succeed, the US Dollar has to fail. But that's just a story. A lot can happen along the way, and what about second-order effects?
One plausible outcome is that bearish USD folks latch onto a narrative, which boosts #Bitcoin. But then something changes in the market. Maybe inflation starts to spike and we finally think "wow, we should balance the budget" and then elect a bunch of deficit hawks?
Read 13 tweets
5 Oct 20
Why is #Bitcoin the future? Let me paint a picture for you.

The national debt is not only growing at an alarming rate, it's growing faster than GDP.
Taken by itself, we might be ok if we didn't have the "twin deficit" problem.
The USA is also suffering from what's called the Triffin's Dilema. We have to supply dollars to the rest of the world, or else wee will suffocate the global economy.
Read 17 tweets
24 Sep 20
The number of #Bitcoin active addresses per day has been growing steadily since the bottom of the market in 2018. Here you can see the 90d moving average. The floor is slowly being raised.

H/T @coinmetrics Image
In order to put this into perspective, consider this chart in linear scale. It should be apparent that if this trend continues this figure will surpass the ATH very soon. Image
If you're wondering why this matters, consider that the value of Bitcoin is derived (at a high level) from the network. The larger the network, the more useful and valuable Bitcoin becomes. Sprinkle on some QE infinity, and wait for the fireworks. Image
Read 4 tweets
17 Sep 20
Be careful about assuming that the long-term impact of Covid-19 will be minimal (v-shaped recovery). We've never had so many dislocated workers. Even now the figures are greater than any other point in history. Image
Why isn't there blood in the streets? Well if you can't make your house payment then why not just punt the payments out six months? Still in trouble? How about another six months? Kicking the can has to end at some point. It's all a house of cards.
It should be obvious that digital currencies are the future by now. Prepare yourself for whatever comes next with an allocation to #Bitcoin. Image
Read 4 tweets

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