1/ "Bill Gurley has written about the idea that owning demand is way more important than owning supply. I’ve really focused on is why [an aggregator] is different than a platform." Ben Thompson
2/ Spotify is a very weak aggregator in the case of music. Whereas podcasts, because the supply is much more disparate, everyone’s independent, there’s not a unifying force tying them together. That’s a place where Spotify can exert much more potential control and power."
3/ "The relative power of suppliers determines how big and profitable the company that controls demand can be. Take Spotify’s other business music as an example. In this case because the suppliers sort of have a monopoly on music for all the more negotiating power they have."
4/ "People talk about controlling a point of the value chain, but it turns out in the analog world, that point was almost always physical distribution. All of those constraints are going away on the internet. You have no more constraint when it comes to shelf space." Ben Thompson
5/ "Amazon has infinite shelf space. It can hold as many products as possible. That’s why they have the merchant program because the merchants let them expand their inventory massively at zero cost to Amazon. It’s an incredible model."
Ben Thompson
6/ "What actually made money in publishing previously was not writing. It was delivery trucks and distribution deals, printing presses. On the internet, you actually make money through subscriptions. The writers are no longer a cost center. They’re a profit center." Ben Thompson
7/ "Publishers must get way more efficient on the backend and how they support writers because everything else is a cost center. It’s a shift in mindset about what drives sustainable profits in the long run. How do you deliver sustainable differentiation?" Ben Thompson
8/ "Previously publications were broad based. Future publications will be very, very narrow and they’ll take advantage of the fact that their addressable market is not just New York or the US. Their addressable market is the entire world." Ben Thompson
9/ "Trying to sell content on the internet is a loser’s game. It’s bits on a screen, zero marginal costs. What you need to deliver is a service of continually making someone feel informed about something or continually delivering analysis they find valuable." Ben Thompson
10/ "There’s so much content to read on the internet. I don’t need more content. What I’m looking is to feel informed and you deliver the experience of feeling informed often by telling someone there's nothing going on here, so go spend your time somewhere else." Ben Thompson
11/ "There's a lot of people in the world. Publications must find their specific niche such that customers are willing to go through the hassle and pay. If they won't pay since it was their second, third, or fourth subscription, then they weren’t their target customer anyway."
12/ "For a bundle to make sense for me, the person that wouldn't subscribe to Stratechery directly, but would subscribed to the bundle, the number of those customers and their incremental value has to outweigh the value I’m giving up by contributing my subscribers to the bundle."
13/ Patrick O’Shaughnessy asks great questions and is a good listener. His interview with Ben Thompson (which contains the quotes above) is here: investorfieldguide.com/thompson/

A couple of years ago Patrick O’Shaughnessy had a podcast conversation with me: investorfieldguide.com/tren/
14/ It is always interesting to discover what the style is of a podcast host. My most recent podcast was with Howard Linzon directory.libsyn.com/episode/index/… and before that David Perell perell.com/podcast/tren-g…. The common factor making for a great host is the person's listening skills.
15/ Ben Thompson's interview is easier to digest and share because of the table of contents that Patrick O’Shaughnessy creates. Topics like Stripe, value chains, the smile curve, and Shopify vs Amazon/Walmart are easier to refer back to or suggest that other people listen to.
16/ My post on Ben Thompson's ideas like aggregation theory from 3 years ago explains more, but also how he's constantly refining his ideas. A new thesis like "the end of the beginning" appears as he observes evolution. "Why do businesses do what they do?" google.com/amp/s/25iq.com…
17/ If I was a professional writer who had just been laid off, I would be moving to a business model pioneered by people like Ben Thompson. Instead of looking for another job working for a publication, I would be creating my own publication. It means running a business though.
18/ One upside of writers running their own publication is subscribers are now their own "boss" and they can go deep on topics that interest their community. The self-employed writer must do things like marketing and finance, but they gain control over their professional fate.

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with Tren Griffin

Tren Griffin Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @trengriffin

Feb 20
1/ Being on a board of directors with @wolfejosh has been an amazingly enjoyable and educational experience. He's always prepared, informed, contributes and has fun.

Josh believes: "edge can derive from informational, analytical or behavioral sources." 25iq.com/2018/07/07/les…
2/ If you work on a team that runs a business you can acquire an edge versus people who only invest and don't have your source of edge.

"To make money, you must find something that nobody else knows, or do something that others won’t do."

Peter Lynch 25iq.com/2013/07/28/a-d…
3/ One of my sources of edge is the ability to value certain businesses by using DCF analysis. That's what anyone running a business learns to do. If you do this for decades you get better at it.

Is it easy? No. Can I do every company? No. Do I have an edge in doing it? Yes.
Read 6 tweets
Feb 19
1/ Charlie Munger: "We invested money in China. I feel about Russia the way Gundlach feels about China. I don’t invest in Russia so I can’t criticize Gundlach’s point of view. I reached a different conclusion. If he’s nervous, he doesn’t have to join us." junto.investments/daily-journal-…
2/ "On balance, we prefer the risks we have to those we’re avoiding and we don’t mind a tiny little bit of margin debt. When you buy Alibaba, you do get sort of a derivative. But assuming there’s a reasonable honor among civilized nations, that risk doesn’t seem that big to me."
3/ Charlie Munger: "We’ve gotten an absence of world wars for a long time because we had these nuclear weapons. But it does make you nervous every once in a while and it’s quite irresponsible when the leaders in the modern age get tensions over border incidents and so forth."
Read 50 tweets
Feb 3
1/ Informing a reader by telling stories is the approach taken in this new book on venture capital. It's is easier to convey an idea like:

"Venture capital is not even a home-run business. It's a grand-slam business." Bill Gurley

if you tell a story. amazon.com/Power-Law-Vent…
2/ Free book excerpt at: penguinrandomhouse.com/books/580120/t…

"Most people think improbable ideas are unimportant, but the only thing that's important is something that's improbable."

Don't pitch an incremental category that is: "one sheet of toilet paper, not two." penguinrandomhouse.com/books/580120/t…
3/ A recent example of how stories work as a teaching tool is Morgan Housel's book The Psychology of Money. The huge sales of Morgan's book are an example of a power law at work. He wrote a grand slam. If you want more readers or viewers, tell more stories.infiniteloops.libsyn.com/tren-griffin-w…
Read 4 tweets
Feb 2
"Starlink Premium users can expect download speeds of 150-500 Mbps and latency of 20-40ms, enabling high throughput connectivity for small offices, storefronts, and super users across the globe" starlink.com/premium
This is a new Starlink service apparently aimed at non-residential customers.
Mobile capacity management is harder.

"The first premium deliveries will begin second quarter. Unlike the standard product, which only guarantees service at a specific service address, SpaceX says Starlink Premium is capable of connecting from anywhere." cnbc.com/amp/2022/02/02…
Read 4 tweets
Jan 31
Do food delivery companies that spend this much on customer acquisition have issues around product/market fit? Or are they trying to acquire scale economies and benefit from a positive feedback loop?

Subsidized goods or services aren't COGS, but instead are in-kind CAC.
Andy Rachleff: “You know you have product/market fit if your product grows exponentially with no marketing. That is only possible if you have huge word of mouth. Word of mouth is only possible if you have delighted your customer.”
Until a delivery business establishes superior liquidity, it is vulnerable. Part of liquidity is more delivery people available which is a function of more transaction volume. Density of transactions can generate positive feedback. You're at the mercy of your stupidest competitor
Read 4 tweets
Jan 31
1/ Brian Arthur: "Complexity economics sees the economy as not necessarily in equilibrium, its decision makers (or agents) as not super-rational, the problems they face as not necessarily well-defined and the economy not as a perfectly humming machine."
nature.com/articles/s4225…
2/ "Complexity economics assumes that agents differ and that they have imperfect information about other agents. The resulting outcome may not be in equilibrium and may display patterns and emergent phenomena not visible to equilibrium analysis." nature.com/articles/s4225…
3/ "Because assumptions are a widening of the neoclassical ones, complexity economics is neither a special case of equilibrium economics nor an addition to it. Complexity economics sees the economy not as mechanistic, static, timeless and perfect but as organically."
Read 4 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!

:(