THREAD: I've been seeing lots of articles and tweets about the risk of a new COVID-19 spike due to #BlackLivesMatter protests. But they're getting causation wrong.
The likely cause of this spike won't be the protests themselves--it's the police responses to those protests. /1
The likely cause of this spike won't be the protests themselves--it's the police responses to those protests. /1
Yes, being around other people creates some elevated risk, potentially mitigated by being outdoors. But what public health experts have repeatedly emphasized is that the greatest risks come from proximity and crowding, coughing, and indoor spaces. vox.com/2020/5/22/2126… /2
When police use pepper spray, tear gas, and other chemical munitions, they make people choke and cough--that's a high risk factor.
There's also evidence that tear gas causes long-term respiratory harm that makes people more susceptible to COVID-19. /3 nytimes.com/2020/06/03/us/…
There's also evidence that tear gas causes long-term respiratory harm that makes people more susceptible to COVID-19. /3 nytimes.com/2020/06/03/us/…
When police kettle protesters (packing them into smaller and smaller spaces, with limited or no exits), they force people to pack tighter together--that's a high risk factor. /4
When police arrest protesters and pack them into vans or buses, that's crowding in indoor spaces--one of the highest risk factors. /5
And finally, when police book protesters into jails, they are massively elevating infection risks. Jails are well-known hotbeds of COVID-19 infection, because they are indoor, congregate, unhygienic environments where people can't socially distance. /6 aclu.org/news/smart-jus…
Whatever the elevated risks of being in an outdoor protest are, those risks are dwarfed by the reckless decisions by police to unnecessarily pepper spray, arrest, and jail people who are involved in those protests. Remember this in two weeks. /7
