Thread by @JakeRugh

The day after the 2016 election was the most difficult day to teach.

I mourned with students of color who had family who had been deported, who had been abused by police. They cried, afraid.

Several white students didn't get it.

In 2020, most get it:
link.medium.com/2pPoq80906

medium.com/@jakerugh/i-as…

From May 15–22, 2020, 398 students responded, for a response rate of 26%, including 325 registered voters who said they would vote in 2020. Over 9 in 10 of the students surveyed took a general education course with no prereqs; they represent all BYU majors & most U.S. states.

One the one hand, the Democratic unity of negative partisanship comes as no surprise: 91% of Democrats intend to vote for Biden, not one Democratic voter said they would vote for Trump, and 9% remain undecided.

On the other hand, only 49% of Republicans plan to vote for Trump.

An age gap is evident even among these Gen Z & Millennial voters. Only 18% of voters age 18–24 pick Trump vs. 26% of voters age 25–39. While statistically similar shares (53% vs. 50%) say they would vote for Biden.
medium.com/@jakerugh/i-as…

About 4 in 5 respondents self-identify as white, reflecting BYU as a historically white university (81% white, down from 87% white in 2002). Today, there are over 5,000 students of color @BYU.

Since 2002, Black & Latino enrollment at BYU has tripled.
medium.com/@jakerugh/i-as…

Black-Latino Alliance Panel Discussion Jan. 30 to kick off Black History Month had 120+ & 50+ people in standing overflow to hear from brilliant Black, Latina/o, & Afro-Latinx students & famed Chicano movement scholar and activist, Dr. Ignacio García:

If recent trends since 2009 continue, there could be as many as 8,000-9,000 students of color at BYU by 2030.

BYU has become more diverse *at the same time* that it has become more selective, which explodes stereotypes about Black students.
churchofjesuschrist.org/study/ensign/2…

Based on first-year student enrollment trends, there will be 3,000 Latino students at BYU by 2022.
medium.com/@jakerugh/i-as…

The gender divide outweighs the race divide among BYU-educated 2020 likely election voters
medium.com/@jakerugh/i-as…

Only 4% of BYU women of color, mostly LDS, plan to vote for Trump. This finding alone dispels any potential misperceptions about LDS women of color, underscoring how they are at once Black, Mormon, and female, not separate identities:

One potential explanation is that BYU majors are stratified more by gender than race: Women overall may be more amenable government intervention for US public investments in racism they learn about in their curricula, like mortgage #redlining
theatlantic.com/magazine/archi…

BYU-educated women @gennamariesmith @DebLexis @fremlo_ heard historian @DrIbram Kendi on how to be a better anti-racist at the @UUtah @TannerHumCenter hosted by @ProfErikaGeorge. Kendi argues that racial groups must be defined intersectionally:
amazon.com/How-Be-Antirac…

Back to the survey: What are the 2020 vote intentions of BYU-educated (mostly LDS) voters who voted in 2016? How does Trump support compare to 2020?

31% voted for Trump in 2016
25% of 2016 voters plan to vote for Trump in 2020 (-6 pts)

@EvanMcMullin rarely wastes an opportunity among his roughly 491,000 followers on Twitter to draw distinctions between him and Trump.

https://twitter.com/EvanMcMullin/status/1266396391703605248

@EvanMcMullin's organization, @StandUpRepublic recently launched a cross-partisan coaltion against Trump, by de facto, for Biden in current 2-way race:
standuprepublic.com/stand-up-repub…

Here are the 2020 vote choices broken down by who the BYU-educated voter chose in 2016, including those who were eligible and old enough to vote, but did not vote (the largest category). Biden is holding on to Clinton voters. Trump's voters more divided.
medium.com/@jakerugh/i-as…

Many Republican-leaning BYU-educated voters (most LDS) sill remain conflicted even after 3 years of a Trump presidency, cross-pressured by Republican partisan loyalty vs. effect of college education/LDS like Romney:
theatlantic.com/politics/archi…
The deep conflict apparent even in 2016

As @dcoxpolls of @AEI has reported, in 2016, LDS/Mormon voters broke with white Evangelicals as the LDS Republican vote share plummeted from 78% to 61% (ANES) or 54% (CCES-see next tweet).
voterstudygroup.org/blog/mormons-a…

Using larger sample size in the CCES 2016 data, 54% of LDS voters in 2016 reported voting for Trump. Rarely reported, I computed difference among LDS voters by race using CCES survey weights, and find that 56% of white LDS voters voted for Trump vs. 34% of LDS voters of color.

Race & generation shape vote choices--LDS (Mormon) voters are no exception:
-In 2016, 56% of white LDS voters cast a ballot for Trump, vs. 34% of LDS voters of color.
-58% of LDS voters over age 35 in 2016 voted for Trump, vs. only 40% of Millennials.
medium.com/@jakerugh/i-as…

I focus on Trump's vote share. The Utah Exit Poll largely confirms my findings: Among 2,395 Utah LDS college-going/grad voters age 18–29 in 2016, the Utah Exit Poll shows that 33% voted for Trump, compared to 29% in my sample of 190 registered Utah voters.
medium.com/@jakerugh/i-as…

The biggest X factor in Utah in 2020? The McMullin factor: How will young college-educated voters who voted for Evan McMullin in 2016 vote in a two-way race between Joe Biden and Donald Trump in 2020? McMullin voters were 34%-44% of young voters:
medium.com/@jakerugh/i-as…

These 2016 Utah election results lead to the final question: What will happen in November 2020?

(1) Scenario 1: most boring, actually *least likely* in my view: Trump 60-Biden 36

Based on 2008 financial crisis and pre-2012 (Romney high)& 2016, McCain won 62-34 over Obama-Biden.

These 2016 Utah election results lead to the final question: What will happen in 2020?

(2) Scenario 2: Close to current Utah poll avg, appears most likely (things could change): Trump 54-Biden 42

In the March 3rd Utah pres. primary, 38% voted for Dem candidates & 54% for Trump

Thread continues toward finale!

Utah Scenario 2 (Trump 54-Biden 42 per rough avg. of polls & pres. primary evidence, rise of youth/POC vote in Utah, other data), part 2 of 2:

Finale!

(3) Scenario 3: Utah "Sudden Swing State"

Trump 50-Biden 46

Scenario 3 seems just as plausible to me than Scenario 1 (like McCain-Obama/Biden 2008 race), given what a nightmare 2020 has been.

Scenario 3 needs more explanation than 1 or 2...
medium.com/@jakerugh/i-as…

***The only way Utah becomes a (sudden) swing state is if enough Republicans cross over to vote for Biden***

Scenario 3.1: 2016 @EvanMcMullin vote must break at least 75-80%+ for Biden.

If 80% break for Biden and 20% for Trump, the outcome may be 50–46:
medium.com/@jakerugh/i-as…

Scenario 3, part 2:

Pres. race in Utah would need to tighten. Per @RealClearNews avg. of 5 polls in 2020, Trump leads Biden by 12+ points in Utah.

Yet @y2analytics/@UtahPolicy poll of 1,078 likely voters showed race too close to call: Trump 44-Biden 41.

https://twitter.com/LarrySabato/status/1265286746851467264

(More on that incredibly close #Utah #Election2020 poll, Trump 44-Biden 41. The same firm showed Trump 46-Biden 41 in their April poll)

In the poll, Biden is doing unexpectedly well due to support from women esp. and moderates/party leaners:

utahpolicy.com/index.php/feat…

Scenario 3 (Utah sudden swing state), part 3:

Last, but perhaps most symbolically important in the wake of national protests over the the lynching and killing of Black people in 2020, LDS voters would need to (continue to?) dial up the *intensity* of their opposition to Trump.

For Utah to become a "sudden swing state," white LDS voters in Utah and across the US would need to dig deeper to shake off tradition and fight for the movement for Black lives:
deseretnews.com/article/865663…

Scenario 3: LDS voters would lead out in opposition to racism in their own communities, like @spencerfluhman.

They would not lag behind today’s multiracial Civil Rights uprising to defend the constitutional right of Black Americans to live--to life.
deseret.com/2016/9/25/2059…

As Harvard Divinity School Ph.D. candidate and Black American LDS woman @jananamirah argues, LDS voters would wrestle with how deeply embedded whiteness remains in the LDS Church:

studyofreligion.fas.harvard.edu/people/janan-g…

LDS voters would wrestle with how deeply embedded whiteness remains in their history, as @WPaulReeve writes--how Mormons moved from seen as not white enough to too white by fatally distancing from blackness, and 40+ years of ongoing repentance since 1978:
amazon.com/Religion-Diffe…

LDS voters would wrestle with how deeply embedded whiteness is in their dominant US/Utah culture, writes award-winning author, Chicano rights activist, BYU historian, and fellow @MormonHistAssoc pres., Dr. Ignacio García:
dialoguejournal.com/wp-content/upl…

More added wisdom from Dr. García, my colleague who traveled with me on the recent first-ever @byu_fhss Civil Rights Seminar
(The pic w/ students is in San Antonio, part of our trip and meetings with Civil Rights Activists in South Texas)

Scenario 3, part 3: Utah a "sudden swing state" in 2020:

***Most important, LDS voters would come to understand that Trump is not an aberration, but a culminating symptom--not the cause--of racism, from slavery to today’s killings.***

nytimes.com/2020/01/17/opi…

Scenario 3, part 3: Utah a "sudden swing state" in 2020

***Most important, LDS voters would come to understand that Trump is not an aberration, but a culminating symptom of racism, from slavery to today’s killings.***

BYU students in 2017 led w/@Kid_melodie & LDS women of color

LDS voters would come to understand that Trump is not an aberration, but a culminating symptom of racialized immigration policies perfectly predicted by Marisa Abrajano and Zoltan Hajnal (students in my capstone immigration seminar read this deeply):
amazon.com/White-Backlash…

...Scenario 3:

2019 data still lag a year behind LDS Senator Mitt Romney’s historic impeachment vote to convict the president, from the same party.

Romney's vote of integrity may embolden some LDS Republicans to vote against Trump.
medium.com/@jakerugh/i-as…

As Romney’s courageous vote to impeach showed, principled taking of sides against Trump need not be partisan.

Trump’s election lit a fire of moral indignation for Sharlee Mullins Glenn, a lifelong LDS Republican & founder of @mormonweg:
nytimes.com/2020/02/19/opi…

@mormonweg is a nonpartisan organization that regularly and thoughtfully rebukes unethical policies of the current administration and counts on perhaps as many as 10,000+ networked and effective members, not all LDS— interfaith collaboration is practiced.
mormonwomenforethicalgovernment.org

In order to fight racism, sexism, nativism, one must actively dismantle systems of oppression, not merely be a bystander who claims they were not the one to banish children from asylum at the border, commit sexual assault, or injure peaceful protesters.
medium.com/@jakerugh/i-as…

This transformation is akin to what @DrIbram Kendi and forerunners like Angela Davis call the difference between striving to be “not racist” versus anti-racist.

https://twitter.com/SikhProf/status/897242946818502656?s=20

I leave you on a cliffhanger for the ending of my essay on BYU-educated LDS voters, the 2020 election in Utah, & how it hinges on struggle for racial justice.

One last clue: the finale focuses on work of @MehrsaBaradaran. Follow her.

Please RT:
medium.com/@jakerugh/i-as…
/fin

Sorry, correct link:

Scenario 3: LDS voters would lead out in opposition to racism in their own communities, like @spencerfluhman.

They would join today’s multiracial Civil Rights uprising to defend the constitutional right of Black Americans to life.
deseret.com/opinion/2020/6…