Thread by @RaoulGMI

Many Muslim countries opened up early because of Ramadan, which has lead to a second wave in many countries as people gathered in larger numbers.

Here is the Middle East as a whole

Here is Indonesia...

And the very concerning, Iran...

Clearly, this is not a comment on religion but a comment on the potential risk of too early re-opening, in terms of cases and also number of deaths, which are now rising again in the Middle East.

Now, Im not interested in the political debate of whether it is worth the re-opening or not. That is just the fast route to a Twitter shit fight. But the US is re-opening at peak virus (not peak growth) outside of NYC and New Jersey and has mass gatherings.

And that does lead to a high risk of a second wave. Remember, second waves are not necessarily about weather but whether the R0 was held below 1. If it wasn't, then the multiplier effect takes hold and much larger numbers get affected, generally exponentially.

And our job is not to debate death rates or whatever, but population behavior and government responses and a growing virus increases the chances of lower growth due to the marginal effect on behavior and even the risk of secondary shut downs.

Also, the fact that we are still hitting new highs in the virus in many big EM countries too, means that global travel will continue to be effectively shut for the next 6 months.

This potential for a second wave is just one of the key risks going into H2, globally.

This also raises the odds on increased stimulus from Q4 onwards - fiscal financed by central bank balance sheets.

Let's see. It is a concern, especially in the US.

Again, to re-iterate, Im not interested in the politics or death rates being worth it, just economic effects.