Thread by @plaforscience

Open thread
1/I'd like to tell the general picture of what we've researched over Rt and epidemic development.
It explains many of the questions I'm asking about our other research, and it's always glued to the best data available.
As any thesis it's opened to improve.
There we go

2/ There's a huge misunderstand spread around the whole R concept.
It is just a useful tool to evaluate epidemic development, but it's constantly relaying in statistic approach.
There's not such thing as a brute R0, defined by God as a universal for the virus, it is always Rt.

3/ Rt is the spreading capacity of the virus at any moment in time, and we've found 4 operators acting over it. Through tendencies in infection we can observe its develope, and make the proper decisions.

4/ First operator, as our constant declining in log scale tendencies, common for every country and measure have showed, is the Herd Immunity. Ever since the first infection the growth is decreasing due HI. The faster the infection spreads, the quicker HI gets better.

4b/ Explaining metaphor.
Virus' behave depends on its Rt. Once it jumps over 1, epidemic explosion and fast grow awaits. Less than one and it is fighting back to its basal phase.
HI is like getting a little lead ball for each infected in the virus pocket, it reduces it's jump.

5/ Climate is the 2nd player. Balancing between the better condition for the virus, out of host time survival, weaker immune system for certain cold temperatures; &worse with different heat/humidity, it provides a VARIABLE thru year reduction to Rt. 4 Europe, very high in summer.

5b/ Temperature is the high jump bar virus is trying to jump over. If it can jump over it, it became epidemic, if not, keeps infecting people by chance, but less and less until be able to jump again, or disappear in history.

6/ Third actor seem to be different virus balance. For ecological reasons it looks like seasonal respiratory deseases follow a pattern in its share of epidemic. First come rhino & parvovirus, then influenzas & lately coronas. Every year. If ones spread, the others fall back.

6b/ Biological virus balance is like a competitor grabbing Coronas tshirt. They're bother trying jump until their turn arrive. But if the bar is very low, and there's no lead, they can get to jump over epidemic bar anytime. Once their time arrive, they can jump their best.

7/Factor 4th is human measures
We've been unable to prove any significant capacity of human most famous measures, from lockdown to mask. And so told WHO
Apart from good hygienics, like washing hands, there's no evidence 4 any other. All tendencies remain nonchalant when studied

7b/ Sorry to tell, but all human measures is people clapping or booing from their seats. Make it all spectacular, but apart encouraging the jumper they do very little.
Evidence very low said WHO.
We couldn't find a trace of them.

8/With all those players acting in the jump, we can make a construct call R0, so the general condition for transmission of the virus. How many viral charge it needs to infect, how fast it spreads in host to produce viral charge, how good it is installing infection...

9/ That's NOT a constant number for the infection. It relays also in the population characteristics. Some people will fall sick easily, some are getting in many infectious scenarios because of their social lives, some are dirty, some live in high density dwellings...

10/That can, & is being, be modelled, dividing populations in groups w different susceptibilities that can be managed statistically Will be tricky to find the correct variability & group factors, but assuming a 'universal' Rt misleads to dead end roads. Like needed HI assumptions

10b/ This will be like the virus range of possible height in different jumps. Depending on rivals, on rain, on altitude, on mood, on wind or whatever you want, it doesn't jump every time exactly the same, bit you can find some patterns for the athlete's expected performance.

11b/All that can explain what happened, and figure whats to come. At the beginning 'R0' was probably retained for virus balance, even being in countries as soon as January, and probably a Rt penalty due to temperatures, not ideal for virus. With those bother over, it explode.

12/ As climate Rt penalty was low the virus epidemic capacity was high and the numbers grow, Gompertz faster than exponential, explosively. But that makes HI grow at the same speed. 6~7 weeks later, the Rt reduction due to HI PLUS the better climate bigger Rt reduction made Rt<1

13/Epidemic dismiss, getting less and less new infections, retreating to its basal state. Of course there will be some infections, Rt<1 doesn't imply EACH sick person can infect u partially! Some can infect 1 or a little cluster, but statistically it has lose epidemic capacity

13b/When virus jumped climate bar was very low for a free weight jump, and so it explode. Lead grows w every infection and soon it was millions weighting. Climate bar was rising with spring, high enough even 4 very low HI load, & it can jump no more over epidemic level. It's out.

14/Now were facing basal phase, with infections very low, but existing,but far from epidemic capacity. Next year when both temperatures & virus balance allow,there'll be a limited 2nd wave. With Rt diminished from the start for HI reached this season, it will be shorter and lower

15/On next year's Rt will be lowered till not even in best conditions the virus can go epidemic, and will be doomed. Virus have survive thru an evolution answer: fast mutation. Those more stable are extinguished this way.
Better strategy? Being more contagious and less lethal.

15b/When temperature bar is high enough,virus keeps attempting,but it's FAR from its possibilities,much worse with HI burden. It still there,but never jumping over. It's needed a lower bar than year before 2 success jumping& as load keeps growing,climate rises bar too high sooner

16/Old dance of viruses&human immune system thru all history, it explains the ACTUAL data we have, wich proves very small amount of HI is retaining the epidemic,human measures not showing anywhere in analysis.
Is it so hard to believe in normal going on?!

Some on virus balance. On the graph, the repeated round of rhino & parvovirus first, then influenzas and finally coronas.

I'm sure more to come on the issue next months.
Any further info you can have on the issue will be more than welcomed.

pnas.org/content/116/52…

WHO & EU telling that.

On the graphs, the constant decrease tendencies of different countries, with different strategies not only between countries but in time for each country.

Where are the human measures?
Insignificant impact

who.int/influenza/publ…

ecdc.europa.eu/en/publication…

@mgmgomes1 is doing a great work studying the approach for docent susceptibility groups & it's math modelling.

Support her!

medrxiv.org/content/10.110…

But no, this year must be different, because my life is SO special that the exceptional MUST happen.

Extraordinary claims require extraordinary explanation.
We still waiting for any, apart 'it's new''it's unknown'
Summer 2020 is new and unknown, I'll bet my word is gonna be hot.

Not docent but *different susceptibility groups!!