"If you don't get this elementary, but mildly unnatural, mathematics of elementary probability into your repertoire, then you go through a long life like a one-legged man in an ass-kicking contest.
I won't bet $100 against house odds between now and the grave.”
Charlie Munger
I won't bet $100 against house odds between now and the grave.”
Charlie Munger
"If you’re going to live a long time, you have to keep learning. What you formerly knew is never enough. So if you don’t learn to constantly revise your earlier conclusions and get better ones, you’re also like a one-legged man in an ass-kicking contest.”
Charlie Munger
Charlie Munger
25IQuiz:
If Mr. C is near enough to 100 people capable of passing Covid-19 to him during his time in the casino tonight, what is the probability he will get the virus? 🦠
If probability is unknown, is that risk or uncertainty?
What's the right margin of safety in this case?
If Mr. C is near enough to 100 people capable of passing Covid-19 to him during his time in the casino tonight, what is the probability he will get the virus? 🦠
If probability is unknown, is that risk or uncertainty?
What's the right margin of safety in this case?
The important point is the decision making process not the specific decision. Investors don’t "gamble” (a net present value negative activity) since their intent is to invest only when the odds are substantially in their favor (i.e., a net present value positive activity).
