1/ I have a theory why @grayscaleinvest is buying so many #Bitcoins yet price doesn't budge. Spare 3 mins and I'll take you down the rabbit hole. First of all you need to understand GBTC trades at a premium to the held. Each share holds 0.00096112 BTCs, as shown below Image
2/ This gives us a Net Asset Value (NAV) of $9800 x 0.00096112 = $9.42, while GBTC US closed at $11.73. That' a hefty 24% premium, which used to be a lot higher as you can see @ ycharts.com/companies/GBTC… Keep in mind only accredited investors can buy directly from @grayscaleinvest Image
3/ meanwhile plebs who do not have $1 million investments gotta buy on secondary markets using their regular stock brokers. 401k vehicles, e*trade and robinhood retail traders have no other way for Bitcoin exposure. Then comes the lock up period...
4/ dicated by SEC's Rule 144, not allowing investors to sell their restricted securities (such as GBTC) for 6 to 12 months depending on reporting requirements. This means one can not buy from Grayscale and immediately dump to make a quick buck.
5/ That's why premium was so large and took years to reduce -- yet, it still remains. Question is: could someone be buying directly from Grayscale while simultaneously dumping spot (or futures) BTC in order to capture this premium in 6 months time?
6/ This could partially explain how GBTC has bought 28k since halving, as @kerooke charted @ - not causing a price impact. I still don't understand why this entity has been spreading this trade over so many days/weeks. Any good theories out there?
fin/ Anyway, this player will be making lots of $$ over the next bull run, as premium might reach 40% plus. Hats off to this guy. @barrysilbert @Sonnenshein Does it make sense? Any comment you guys might add?
ps: my good friend Alexandre from BLP Asset reminds me that those institutional investors can hand out their own BTC in order to 'buy' the GBTC shares
Bottom line: FAKE NEWS. Grayscale hasn't been buying 180% equivalent of all mined coins since halving Image
congrats @zhusu !

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More from @noshitcoins

May 22, 2021
1/n To understand if $35k #Bitcoin makes any sense, you need to 'zoom out' first. First of all, we've never had $500 million+ buy orders executed in a couple of days. Not to mention an S&P500 company using it as reserves. Grayscale GBTC captured huge inflows, while gold ETF bled
2/n Keep in mind, USD fiat had bottomed vs global currencies (DXY) to a 3y low. However, as vaccination grew and companies such as $NFLX reported subpar numbers as life returned to normal, there was less reason to bet on some catastrophic event
3/n By April S&P had fully recovered, breaking 4.000 and real estate prices boomed as well. Just as BTC reached $60k, Janet Yellen and Chistine Lagarde both started citing the need for crypto regulation due to illegal activities. Kraken CEO alerted the "crackdown" on April 12
Read 17 tweets
Oct 1, 2020
Bob McAdoo, 5 time NBA All-Star, 1975 MVP, 2 rings
Michael Jordan, 10 time NBA All-Star, 5 MVP, 6 rings
Do you know what else they have in common?
👇👇 Keep reading, cause this story is amazing Image
The year was 1972, and Portland Trailblazers had the 1st draft pick. Their choice? LaRue Martin, a 6'11'' center from Loyola (Illinois). His team did 4W-20L in 1970-71, and 8W-14L on his senior year, scoring 19.6 points per game & 16 rebounds. Maybe not a bad pick, but....
... what was left behind was Bob McAdoo, #2 pick in 1972 draft by Buffalo Braves. The 6'9'' forward-center from U.North Carolina (26W-5L) did 19.5 points per game & 10 rebounds. Prior to that, McAdoo played at Vincennes, doing 25 points per game, and 11 rebounds. What followed?
Read 10 tweets
Aug 2, 2020
1/ July 26 and 27 pumps caused same liquidation of today's 12% dump. Aggregate open interest remains above $5 billion, so no side is even close to 'defeated'. Quite the opposite, buyers remain very optimist as 3-month basis (contango) remains at healthy 12% annualized... Image
2/ Perpetual funding rate holding below 5% monthly fee also show no sign of buyers giving up. They've built such position below $10,400, so why worry? Options market remains rather calm as well... Image
3/ There are 33% more call options open interest than put (protection) ones. Delta (implied odds) for $12K on Aug 28th sits at 42%, a reasonable figure considering Black & Scholes is conservative. The $10.5K put (protection) has 31% odds, so market makers are bullish... Image
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Took 2y longer than expected, but #Bitfinex cold wallet is finally being drained. 57k BTC outflow in 70 days. Will it hold or finally spiralling out of control? #Bitcoin Image
Another 12k gone... let's start a countdown? 113.5k left
bitinfocharts.com/bitcoin/wallet…
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Mar 23, 2020
Minha leitura do FED - não sou economista:
> Dar garantia pra financiamento auto, estudantil e cartao de crédito significa, obviamente, que alguns bancos grandes quebraram (1/8)
> Não dá pra saber se é o banco diretamente ou algum hedge fund que ele entubou essas picas pra desinflar o balanço, mas esse tipo de crédito é bancário (2/8)
> A sinalização do equivalente a nosso TESOURO dar garantia pra tiazinha que comprou bijuteria no POLISHOP em 12x no cartão de crédito é HORRÍVEL (3/8)
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